MAS 演讲稿 · 2026-07-28
MAS 总裁谢德俊先生在MAS 2025/2026年度报告媒体发布会上的讲话（2026年7月28日）
MAS 总裁谢德俊先生在MAS 2025/2026年度报告媒体发布会上的讲话（2026年7月28日）
要点
- • 新加坡经济在2026年上半年录得6%的同比增长（较2025年下半年的5%上升），由人工智能相关行业增长抵消中东冲突对能源密集型产业的影响。
- • 新加坡金融管理局预计核心及综合通胀率将在2026年平均为1.5%-2.5%，在2027年上半年保持高位，下半年明显下降，主要由燃料及进口商品价格上升推动。
- • 新加坡金融管理局在2026年初保持升值的货币政策立场，并在4月份中东冲突后收紧政策以缓解进口价格上升带来的通胀压力。
- • 人工智能驱动的电子产品出口占亚洲今年迄今出口增长的70%以上（较2024年的46%上升），而与人工智能相关的企业占标普500指数市值约40%，占MSCI新兴市场亚洲指数30%以上。
- • 新加坡金融部门2025年增长4.3%，其中银行资产增长3.1%，保险资产增长7.6%至4,935亿新元，资产管理规模增长10.1%至6.7万亿新元。
- • 新加坡金融管理局宣布成立「未来金融研究所」，通过「创新工作室」共同创造金融用例及「PathFin.ai」平台访问经过验证的解决方案来推动金融部门创新。
完整译文（中文）
MAS 英文原文译文 · 翻译日期: 2026-09-06
1. 下午好，感谢各位今天参加我们发布2025/2026财年MAS年度报告。
2. 我将介绍央行业务、金融部门发展与监管方面的最新进展，以及我们财务表现的主要亮点。最近经济发展 3. 让我首先谈及最近的经济发展和货币政策。
4. 在过去的一年里，宏观经济形势受到了连续冲击的塑造。在去年新闻发布会召开时，全球前景笼罩在以下担忧中：关税上升和贸易政策不确定性将对增长造成重大影响。随后，2026年2月末中东冲突的爆发给全球经济带来了新的冲击。
5. 面对这些反复的冲击，全球经济证明了比预期更强的韧性。更高关税的影响被供应链重新配置所缓冲。全球贸易和工业生产继续扩张，尽管关税率仍保持在较高水平。自3月以来能源供应中断的规模很大，但被库存以及敏捷的供应和需求调整所缓冲。能源市场实现了重新平衡，价格处于预期情景的较低范围，限制了对增长的拖累，但提升了总体通胀的路径。然而，能源价格仍然保持在较高水平，在全球库存较低的背景下，中东冲突再次升级带来了上行风险。
6. 全球经济的增长和韧性受到了强劲全球AI投资的提振。在数据中心、芯片、计算基础设施和半导体产能方面投资的激增支撑了全球电子产品生产和贸易的持续扩张。这已经使增长前景向上转变，特别是对于深度融入全球技术供应链的经济体。
7. 新加坡受到了所有这些逆风的影响。中东冲突对新加坡经济的某些部分产生了明显影响。能源相关部门，如化工制造业，在第二季度录得两位数的收缩。然而，这些部门带来的拖累被技术相关部门的激增所超过。新加坡经济在2026年上半年录得强劲的6%同比增长，相比2025年下半年的5%增长有所提高。
8. 展望未来，新加坡经济的增长在今年余下时间应保持坚实。虽然中东局势仍对前景构成风险，但全球AI相关需求可能继续提供有意义的提振。大多数非AI相关部门可能保持接近趋势的增长步伐。
9. 通胀从较低基数反弹，在未来一段时间内将进一步上升，然后在2027年下半年开始缓解。2025年国内总体和核心通胀保持在低于1.0%的低水平。在2026年第一季度，核心通胀为1.4%，在第二季度为1.5%。我们预期从7月开始这将进一步上升，并在未来几个季度保持高位，由更高的燃料和进口商品价格驱动，抵消缓解的国内成本压力和一些政府补贴的抑制效应。MAS核心通胀和CPI总项通胀预计在2026年平均为1.5%-2.5%，在2027年上半年保持高位，并在2027年下半年明显缓解。
10. MAS的货币政策立场在年初也是良好定位的。我们在去年下半年维持升值立场，今年1月再次如此。这有助于缓解今年通胀的上升。在4月，随着中东冲突的爆发，我们收紧了货币政策，以应对预期的进口通胀压力上升。自那以来，新加坡的一系列能源和其他商品投入品的进口价格大幅上升，并开始向国内消费者价格传导。因此，这个4月的举措在我们进入更强通胀环境时，将货币政策设置置于有利位置。
11. 最近的7月MPS是一个精心设计的政策调整，建立在4月政策决定的基础上。通胀预计在7月进一步上升，并在未来几个季度保持高位，然后在2027年下半年缓解。正产出缺口现在预计将略微扩大，而不是如4月政策评估中所预想的那样缩小。综合考虑4月和7月的决定，新加坡元更强的升值将更有效地抵御即将到来的通胀压力。
12. 在高度不确定的经济环境中，MAS对前景的风险保持警惕，并处于良好定位以应对，以维持中期价格稳定并控制新加坡元名义有效汇率(S$NEER)的过度波动。金融市场和金融稳定 13. 我现在转向金融市场的发展和金融稳定的风险。
14. 迄今为止全球金融条件是良好的并支持经济活动。尽管最近有所回调，股票市场估值仍然很高，信用利差仍然偏紧。
15. 对迄今为止良好态势的一个重大不确定性是AI投资热潮的可持续性。全球增长、投资和金融市场表现已经高度依赖于大规模且不断增加的数据中心和半导体芯片投资持续到远期的预期。这在美国和半导体出口亚洲经济体中尤为如此。
a) AI驱动的电子产品出口占亚洲年初至今出口增长的70%以上，相比2024年的46%有所上升。
b) AI相关公司目前约占S&P 500市场资本化的40%和MSCI新兴市场亚洲指数的30%以上。它们也主导了在美国资本市场筹集的新融资，代表约50%的投资级债券发行、38%的高收益债券发行和87%的新风险投资资金。
16. 因此，AI投资的可持续性对全球增长和金融稳定具有高度重要性。虽然近期投资由承诺订单和强劲的超大规模企业现金流支持，但围绕这些投资在中期的可持续性存在更大的不确定性。在追求模型优势和扩大采用的竞争中，超大规模企业和模型建设者的预期投资已超出现金流和商业收入。在未来数年内将需要大规模的股权和债务融资。
17. 市场将越来越多地看向商业收入增长来证明融资风险的合理性。收入增长将取决于AI生产率收益在企业层面的早期迹象扩大到整个经济，以及变革性应用的深化。如果由加速的收入增长和不断扩大的生产率收益支持，投资热潮可能是一个延长的。但在AI投资货币化的路径上也存在明显的风险。这些包括能源和芯片成本的上升、原材料供应瓶颈、监管不确定性、模型提供商之间的激烈竞争（包括来自低成本开源模型的竞争），以及生产率收益的分享范围有多广。如果AI投资的回报在中期未能达到预期，超大规模企业将放缓投资步伐，市场将重新评估资产估值。
18. 如果任何一种结果发生，其含义都是重大的。
19. 如果我们处于一个长期的AI投资热潮中，且伴随显著和广泛的生产率收益，对收入、需求和通胀的更强和更广泛的溢出效应可能随之而来。对通胀的影响将是复杂的，取决于对能源和投入品的更高需求与生产率收益的步伐和程度之间的相互作用。这些将对央行对潜在产出和中性利率的评估产生后果。
20. 另一方面，如果AI投资出现重大削减，它可能通过商业投资和半导体需求下降以及负面财富效应而急剧削弱全球增长。金融稳定风险也可能通过股票、信贷和贷款市场对具有恶化现金流和复杂融资结构中薄弱信用条款的不可持续商业模式的敞口而显现。全球金融条件可能出现急剧收紧。
21. 第二个风险来源是中东冲突的持久再升级。虽然迄今为止全球石油市场通过更大的供应和需求敏捷性以及比预期更低的价格影响做出了回应，但中东旷日持久的更具破坏性的冲突可能在库存较低的背景下重新引发商品价格波动。虽然这不是我们的基本假设，但我们不能排除石油价格大幅上升和石油及下游产品短缺恶化的风险。
22. MAS强调了在全球压力和不确定性下评估国内金融脆弱性。我们更新了压力测试，以捕捉关键的下行风险，包括中东冲突的再次升级和金融条件的急剧收紧。
23. 虽然结果证实国内金融系统保持大体韧性，但在高度杠杆化的家庭和企业中存在小范围的脆弱性。
a) 金融条件收紧带来的风险对能源密集型部门的企业以及相对支出而言金融缓冲较薄的家庭更为突出。
b) 随着全球不确定性保持在较高水平，暴露程度更高的部门的企业应为更多流动性做好准备，并采取措施多元化收入来源，而收入不够稳定且缓冲较薄的家庭应谨慎对待承担大额新贷款承诺。
金融服务部门发展 24. 我现在转向金融部门的发展。
25. 尽管全球环境更加不确定，金融部门在2025年仍实现了4.3%的健康增长。
a) 2025年的增长基本保持了2021-2025年期间的势头，该期间年均增长为4.6%，每年增加4200个工作岗位（不包括控股公司的工作岗位），就业收益流向本地人士。
26. 增长继续保持广泛基础。
a) 银行部门资产在2025年增长了稳健的3.1%，相比2024年的异常增长有所放缓。
b) 保险业资产在2025年增长7.6%，达到493.5亿新元，较2024年加快增速，与2021年至2025年7.5%的复合年增长率一致。
c) 截至2025年底，管理资产增长10.1%，达到6.7万亿新元。财富管理行业也在更广泛的资产管理行业的带动下继续强劲增长。
d) 作为亚洲领先的外汇交易中心，外汇平均日交易量在2025年继续扩大，达到1.6万亿新元。
e) 新加坡也在继续发展成为该地区领先的固定收益中心。2025年企业债务市场总发行量接近340亿新元，较上年增长10%。
f) 可持续融资活动保持强劲，新加坡继续在ASEAN的绿色、社会、可持续性和可持续性挂钩（"GSSSL"）债券和贷款市场中处于领先地位，占区域活动的一半以上。贷款起源超过27亿新元，尽管全球出现小幅回调，债券发行仍保持韧性。
27. 金融中心的增长得到有效且风险相称的AML/CFT框架的支持，该框架保护新加坡金融体系和经济的完整性，同时对合法商业拥有者和投资者保持欢迎态度。
a) 新加坡第五轮金融行动特别工作组（FATF）相互评估取得的积极成果验证了金管局对金融部门的强有力且风险聚焦的AML/CFT监管、强有力的行业接触和伙伴关系，以及良好的风险意识。
28. MAS继续推出新措施以增强我们金融部门的竞争力并开发新的支柱。
29. 如副总理颜金勇在2026年6月25日ABS年度晚宴上所分享的，这些包括：
a) 深化新加坡的增长资本生态系统，以更好地调动和中介资本流动，支持亚洲长期增长；
b) 通过拟议的Protected Cell Company框架扩大替代风险转移解决方案和风险中介能力；以及
c) 加强新加坡在黄金交易、清算和储存中的作用。
30. 关于黄金，副总理颜金勇在6月亚太贵金属会议上宣布，MAS将取消基金税收激励计划下对实物贵金属投资的5%上限。
a) 我们想提供一个更新，该变化将从2026年8月1日起生效，为符合条件的基金和家族办公室提供在新加坡投资实物黄金的更大灵活性。
b) MAS将很快发布通函以阐述进一步的细节。
31. 今天，我将更新我们为维持创新、稳定性、安全和信任而进行的努力，这些是新加坡作为竞争和创新金融部门地位的基础。我的评论将涉及2个领域：
a) 首先，扩大金融部门的创新规模。
b) 其次，加强我们金融体系对AI驱动威胁的应对能力。
金融部门创新规模扩大 32. 上月，MAS宣布了建立金融未来研究所（FFI）的计划。
33. 通过FFI，我们将在整个生态系统中对连接、能力、人才和基础设施进行重大投资，以推动新加坡金融创新的下一阶段。
a) FFI的创新车库将汇聚金融机构（FIs）、FinTechs和技术提供商，共同创建和验证新的用例。例如，我们正在形成金融和欺诈检测中的智能体AI的合作。
b) FFI将把金融行业与我们大学的研究能力相连，并建立行业相关的研究计划。
c) 金融机构可以通过利用PathFin.ai来加速其采用之旅，从其他FIs、技术公司和FinTechs中找到行业验证的解决方案。
d) AI采用必须与治理和护栏并行推进。现有的AI风险管理工具包将不断更新和扩展，纳入新的实施手册、可重复使用的护栏、控制库，以及在AI使用和风险的具体领域内的实施模板，以支持FIs安全地部署AI。
34. FFI将在接下来的几个月内开始运营，并在未来一年内扩大其计划规模。
35. 在新加坡开发FinTech生态系统也继续是MAS的优先事项。目前有1,900家FinTech公司雇用将近10,000名员工。MAS将更新和增强我们对FinTech发展的支持。通过对能力发展、增长融资和人力资源接入的支持，我们旨在加强动态FinTech部门的增长前景。我们正在审查这些战略，并与新加坡FinTech协会和该部门进行咨询，将在今年晚些时候分享更多信息。加强我们的金融体系应对AI驱动威胁的韧性 36. 现在让我转向加强我们的金融体系应对AI驱动威胁的韧性。
37. 随着金融部门的快速数字化，我们在过去几年中专注于增强我们的数字金融服务对欺诈、运营中断和网络安全威胁的韧性。
38. 我们在这些领域中都引入了重大措施，并取得了有意义的进展。
39. 在打击欺诈方面，我们与银行合作增强其欺诈监控能力，并在数字交易流程中引入经过精心设置的摩擦，以阻碍欺诈。
a) 使用Money Lock功能从数字转账中保护的金额在2026年5月达到约47亿新元，几乎是一年前金额的两倍。
b) 2025年，新加坡诈骗案件和损失金额同时出现自2021年以来的首次下降。
40. 为加强关键服务和职能的运营抗压能力，我们一直在与金融机构合作，加强其跨四个关键支柱的风险管理框架的有效性：运营风险、技术和网络风险、第三方风险以及业务连续性。
a) 2026年3月，新加坡金融管理局就更新的《运营风险管理指引》和《第三方风险管理指引》进行咨询。
i. 新指引对金融机构在第三方安排中理解和管理风险方面提出了更高的要求。
b) 我们目前正在就新加坡金融管理局《技术风险管理通知》的修订征求意见，以提升金融机构的技术抗压能力。
i. 拟议通知强制要求在IT资产管理、IT容量规划、持续系统和安全监控、数据备份和恢复等关键领域实施健全的做法。
41. 随着数字支付在日常交易中的核心地位不断提高，我们也一直在与行业合作，以提升零售支付的抗压能力。
a) 2025年8月实施了NETS借记卡支付在销售点的备用处理，使得在银行系统中断期间，无接触借记卡支付可在限额内继续进行。
b) 我们正在与主要银行合作，为其数字零售支付引入类似的备用功能，以便银行在系统中断期间能够继续提供支付和资金转账等关键银行服务。
42. 前沿人工智能和量子计算的进步在打击诈骗和网络威胁的斗争中增加了新的挑战。我将介绍新加坡金融管理局如何与行业合作逐一应对这些挑战。
43. 首先，人工智能驱动的诈骗。
a) 借助人工智能，可以大规模地进行更个性化和更有说服力的网络钓鱼，使用深度伪造冒充、诈骗信息定制和其他欺骗战术。
44. 迄今为止在数字银行交易中引入的防护措施仍然有用。这些包括：
a) 更强大的身份验证方法，例如通过数字令牌而不是一次性密码进行应用内授权批准；
b) 为高风险交易设置冷却期，给予潜在诈骗受害者在资金转账前重新考虑的时间。
45. 与此同时，银行必须利用人工智能并加强控制措施，以更好地防御更复杂的人工智能驱动诈骗战术。
a) 新加坡金融管理局将审查银行加强欺诈检测模型有效性的努力，包括它们使用人工智能的有效性。
b) 新加坡金融管理局目前也正在与政府科技局、新加坡警察部队（SPF）和五家银行合作，进行价值验证，以测试在跨银行和公私合作数据基础上训练的人工智能模型是否能够改进诈骗交易的整体检测。
i. 价值验证的发现预计将在明年准备好。
ii. 这些发现将指导进一步测试和增强银行内部欺诈模型，并有助于确定建立行业级平台以汇集数据并应用人工智能的必要性。
46. 新加坡金融管理局也在继续与银行合作，研究更强大的身份验证方法，例如符合FIDO标准的安全密钥和软件通行密钥，以便行业在这些技术需要时做好准备。
47. 我们将继续推进这些努力，使系统更难被利用，同时继续与行业和公众合作，保持对日益复杂的诈骗的警惕。
48. 现在让我转向人工智能驱动的网络威胁。
49. 前沿人工智能模型发现和利用系统漏洞的能力对金融机构的网络防御构成威胁。
a) 前沿人工智能模型的能力有两个主要影响：
i. 首先，发现的漏洞数量大幅增加，包括在多家金融机构依赖的广泛使用软件和共享技术基础设施中发现的漏洞；
ii. 其次，从发现到利用的时间线更短，从几周缩短到几天甚至几小时。
b) 总体来说，这些显著压缩了修补、测试和修复的时间线。
c) 这使得全世界的系统所有者，包括我们的金融机构，难以及时、有力地执行大规模的补救工作。
50. 前沿人工智能模型的能力必然要求紧迫提升网络防御能力。
51. MAS于2026年4月首次发布指引，呼吁金融机构进一步加强网络防御。
a) 除了缩短应用安全补丁的时间外，金融机构被要求加速在安全编码、漏洞检测和安全测试等各种网络安全功能中采用AI。
b) 例如，金融机构应该扩大使用现有先进模型来发现漏洞。
52. MAS随后在7月1日为关键金融机构引入了一项新要求，即对关键互联网面向系统进行AI辅助红队测试。
a) 金融机构需要利用先进的AI模型来识别可能使网络犯罪分子中断关键服务或获取敏感客户数据的潜在攻击路径。
b) 从这些演习中吸取的经验教训将与更广泛的行业分享，以便金融机构能够加强其集体韧性。
53. MAS将进一步加强我们的要求，并将很快为关键金融机构发布监管期望，要求其制定和提交全面的评估和行动计划，以加强对AI驱动网络威胁的防御。这些应该以风险评估框架为基础，并涉及金融机构的以下能力：
a) 大规模检测和修补漏洞；
b) 在实施前测试系统变更；以及
c) 在发生中断时备份、恢复和修复关键系统和服务。
54. AI和网络发展正在快速变化，需要不断评估所造成的威胁并加强韧性措施。我想分享一个消息，新加坡银行协会AI驱动网络与技术风险工作小组（ABS-ACT）已经成立。
a) 工作小组由MAS和来自主要金融机构的资深技术和网络领导者组成，共同创建应对AI驱动威胁的战略和措施。
b) 工作小组将专注于三个关键领域：
i. 首先，通过行业分享和与网络安全及AI专家的合作，提高金融机构在网络安全中使用AI的专业知识；
ii. 其次，合作进行先进AI驱动工具的试验和验证；以及
iii. 第三，开发行业指南，说明新措施、控制措施和解决方案，以更好地检测、防止和应对复杂的AI驱动威胁。
55. 量子计算在中期内对金融机构使用的数据和通信安全构成重大风险，需要提前做好准备。
a) 该技术仍处于发展阶段。一些专家估计，量子计算可能在5-10年内破解现有加密技术，尽管也有观点认为可能不到5年。
b) 然而，向量子安全实践的过渡将需要时间，现在做好认真的准备肯定不会太早。
56. 在过去几年，MAS已经开始为量子安全金融部门奠定基础。
a) 我们在2024年向金融机构发布了指引，强调了他们应该考虑的量子过渡措施。
b) 我们还与行业和国际同行就量子韧性密码学解决方案进行了技术工作，以保护通信安全。
57. MAS将在今年晚些时候发布一套监管期望，为金融机构向量子韧性的迁移提供明确的期望、里程碑和时间表。将为金融机构设定渐进式时间表，以便：
a) 建立其密码学资产清单；
b) 制定脆弱资产向量子韧性解决方案迁移的优先级排序；以及
c) 建立技术能力和治理框架以支持量子安全迁移。
58. 我们的目标是金融机构在本十年末之前实现量子韧性。MAS 2025/26财年财务结果 59. 现在我转向MAS的财务结果。
60. 截至2026年3月31日的财年，MAS实现净利润200亿新元，主要原因是：
a) 按成本与市场价值较低值记录的投资收益为398亿新元；
b) 部分被抵消——
i. 新加坡元升值导致的负汇兑影响达16.4亿新元；
ii. 金管局货币市场操作（或MMO）管理银行系统流动性和其他支出的净成本为24亿新元；及
iii. 向政府统一基金的缴款为10亿新元。
61. 投资收益表现强劲，因为全球经济对反复冲击保持了韧性，金融市场表现良好。债券和股票等所有资产类别在发达市场和新兴市场均获得良好回报。虽然投资收益逐年变化，但今年的结果与去年相似，并高于我们10年历史平均水平18.3亿新元。未来前景存在不确定性，能源市场持续扰动、通胀上升和股票市场估值过高对未来投资回报构成风险。
62. 16.4亿新元的负汇兑影响主要是由于新加坡元对美元和日元升值所致。新加坡元升值有助于缓和进口通胀的影响，但同时产生了负汇兑影响。这些影响产生于金管局以外币形式持有的官方外汇储备（或OFR）用新元报告时。这些影响不会影响金管局进行货币政策或维护金融稳定的能力，后者涉及使用外币资产和流动性。
63. 与其他央行一样，金管局通过货币市场操作（MMO）来吸收银行系统过剩流动性而产生利息支出。这些成本反映了MMO的规模和利率水平，两者在今年都有所下降。储备管理政府证券（或RMGS）的收入部分抵消了这项支出。
64. 金管局将向统一基金缴款10亿新元，并向政府返还净利润中的另外25亿新元。向政府支付的金额反映了对以往年份累积亏损的抵消。
65. 金管局维持全球多元化、流动性充足的官方外汇储备（OFR）投资组合，以支持我们作为央行的职能。金管局的财务结果反映了全球资产市场的表现，经计入MMO成本和新加坡元升值带来的负汇兑影响。由于这些因素在不同年份有不同的影响，金管局年度财务结果也会出现波动。结论 66. 据此，我结束我的发言。感谢各位的关注。
英文原文
MAS 官网原始记录 · 抓取日期: 2026-09-06
1. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today for the release of the MAS Annual Report for Financial Year 2025/2026.
2. I will cover updates across central banking, financial sector development and regulation, as well as key highlights of our financial performance. Recent Economic Developments 3. Let me begin by touching on recent economic developments and monetary policy.
4. Over the past year, the macroeconomic landscape has been shaped by successive shocks. At the time of last year’s Press Conference, the global outlook was clouded by concerns that rising tariffs and trade policy uncertainty would weigh materially on growth. The subsequent outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February 2026 introduced a new shock to the global economy.
5. In the face of these repeated shocks, the global economy has proved more resilient than expected. The impact of higher tariffs was cushioned by supply-chain reconfiguration. Global trade and industrial production continued to expand, even as tariff rates remained elevated. The scale of energy supply disruption since March was large, but cushioned by inventories, and agile supply and demand adjustments. Energy markets rebalanced with elevated prices at the lower range of anticipated scenarios, limiting the drag on growth, but lifting the path of headline inflation. Energy prices nevertheless remain elevated with risks to the upside from the renewed conflict in the context of lower global inventories.
6. The growth and resilience of the global economy was boosted by strong global AI investment. A surge in investment in data centres, chips and computing infrastructure and semiconductor capacity has supported a sustained expansion in global production and trade in electronic products. This has shifted growth outturns upwards, especially for economies that are deeply embedded in global technology supply chains.
7. Singapore has been exposed to all these crosswinds. The Middle East conflict has had a discernible impact on some pockets of the Singapore economy. Energy-related sectors such as chemicals manufacturing recorded double-digit contractions in Q2. However, the drag from these sectors was more than offset by the surge in the technology-related sectors. The Singapore economy recorded a strong 6% year-on-year growth in H1 2026, a step-up from the 5% growth in H2 2025.
8. Looking ahead, growth of the Singapore economy should stay firm for the rest of the year. While the Middle East situation still poses risks to the outlook, global AI-related demand is likely to continue to provide a meaningful boost. Most non-AI related sectors are likely to maintain a pace of growth that is close to trend.
9. Inflation has picked up from a low base and will step up further in the period ahead before easing in the second half of 2027. Domestic headline and core inflation was low at below 1.0% in 2025. In 1Q2026, core inflation was 1.4% and in Q2, this was 1.5%. We expect this to step up further from July and stay elevated for the next few quarters, driven by higher fuel and imported goods prices offsetting moderating domestic cost pressures and dampening effects of some government subsidies. MAS Core and CPI-All Items Inflation are projected to average 1.5-2.5% in 2026, stay elevated in the first half of 2027 and ease discernibly in the second half of 2027.
10. MAS’ monetary policy stance was also well-positioned at the start of the year. We maintained an appreciating stance in the second half of last year and again in January this year. This has helped to moderate the pick-up in inflation this year. In April, following the onset of the Middle East conflict, we tightened monetary policy in anticipation of rising imported inflationary pressures. Since then, Singapore’s import prices for a range of energy and other commodity inputs have risen sharply and have started to pass through to domestic consumer prices. This April move has therefore placed monetary policy settings in a favourable position as we head into a stronger inflationary environment.
11. The latest July MPS was a carefully calibrated policy adjustment that builds on April's policy decision. Inflation is forecast to step up further in July and stay elevated over the next few quarters before easing in the second half of 2027. The positive output gap is now expected to widen slightly, rather than narrow as envisaged in the April policy review. Taking the April and July decisions together, the stronger appreciation of the Singapore dollar will lean more effectively against the incoming inflationary pressures.
12. Amid the highly uncertain economic environment, MAS remains vigilant to risks to the outlook and is well-positioned to respond to maintain medium-term price stability and curb excess volatility in the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER). Financial markets and financial stability 13. I will turn now to developments in the financial markets and risks to financial stability.
14. Global financial conditions have thus far been benign and supportive of economic activity. Despite recent pullbacks, equity market valuations are high and credit spreads remain tight.
15. One major uncertainty to the benign picture thus far is the sustainability of the AI investment boom. Global growth, investment and financial market performance have become highly dependent on projections of large and increasing investment in data centres and semiconductor chips continuing well into the future. This is particularly so in the US and semiconductor-exporting Asian economies.
a) AI-driven electronics exports account for more than 70% of Asia's export growth year-to-date, up from 46% in 2024.
b) AI-connected firms now account for around 40% of S&P 500 market capitalisation and more than 30% of the MSCI EM Asia Index. They also dominate new financing raised in US capital markets, representing around half of investment-grade bond issuance, 38% of high-yield issuance, and 87% of new venture capital funding.
16. The sustainability of AI investments is thus highly consequential for global growth and financial stability. While near-term investments are supported by committed orders and strong hyperscaler cashflows, there is greater uncertainty around the sustainability of these investments in the medium term. In the race for model advantage and to scale adoption, projected investments by hyperscalers and model builders have expanded beyond cashflows and commercial revenues. Large equity and debt financing will be needed in the years ahead.
17. Markets will increasingly be looking to commercial revenue growth to justify the financing risks. Revenue growth will in turn depend on early signs of AI productivity gains at the firm level broadening across the economy and a deepening of transformative applications. The investment boom could be an extended one if supported by accelerating revenue growth and broadening productivity gains. But there are also clear risks on the path of AI investment monetisation. These include the escalating costs of energy and chips, supply bottlenecks of raw materials, regulatory uncertainty, intense competition among model providers, including from lower-cost open-weight models, as well as how widely shared the benefits of productivity gains are. If the payoff of AI investments falls short of expectations over the medium term, hyperscalers will moderate the pace of investment and markets will reassess asset valuations.
18. The implications are significant if either outcome comes to pass.
19. If we are in a long AI investment boom with significant and broad productivity gains, stronger and broader spillovers to income, demand and inflation could ensue. The impact on inflation will be complex and depends on the interplay of higher demand for energy and inputs against the pace and extent of productivity gains. These will have consequences for central banks’ assessment of potential output and neutral interest rates.
20. If on the other hand, there is a major retrenchment in AI investment, it could sharply weaken global growth through a fall in business investment and semiconductor demand and negative wealth effects. Financial stability risks could also materialise through equity, credit and loan markets’ exposures to unsustainable business models with deteriorating cashflows and weak credit terms in complex financing structures. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could result.
21. A second source of risk is a prolonged re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. While the global oil market has responded so far with greater supply and demand agility and lower price impact than feared, a prolonged and more damaging conflict in the Middle East could reignite commodity price volatility amid lower inventories. While not our base case, we cannot discount the risk of oil prices moving sharply higher and shortages of oil and downstream products worsening.
22. MAS has placed emphasis on assessing domestic financial vulnerabilities given global stresses and uncertainties. We have updated our stress tests to capture key downside risks, including a resurgence of the Middle East conflict and a sharp tightening in financial conditions.
23. While the results affirm that the domestic financial system remains broadly resilient, there are small pockets of vulnerability among highly leveraged households and corporates.
a) Risks from a tightening in financial conditions are more pronounced for firms in energy-intensive sectors and for households with thinner financial buffers relative to expenditure.
b) As global uncertainty remains elevated, firms in more exposed sectors should provision for more liquidity and take steps to diversify revenue sources, while households with less stable incomes and thinner buffers should be cautious about taking on large new loan commitments.
Developments in the Financial Services Sector 24. I now turn to developments in the financial sector.
25. The financial sector saw healthy growth of 4.3% in 2025 despite a more uncertain global environment.
a) The growth in 2025 broadly maintains the momentum over the 2021-2025 period, which averaged 4.6% in annual growth and added 4,200 jobs Excludes jobs in holding companies. annually, with the gains in employment going to locals.
26. Growth continues to be broad-based.
a) Banking sector assets grew a steady 3.1% in 2025, easing from exceptional growth in 2024.
b) Assets in the insurance industry grew 7.6% in 2025, to S$493.5 billion, accelerating from 2024 and in line with the 7.5% CAGR from 2021 to 2025.
c) Assets under management grew 10.1% to reach S$6.7 trillion as at end-2025. The wealth management industry has also continued to grow strongly alongside the broader asset management industry.
d) As Asia’s leading FX hub, FX average daily traded volumes continued to expand to reach S$1.6 trillion in 2025.
e) Singapore also continues to grow as a leading regional fixed income hub. The corporate debt market saw total issuances of close to S$340 billion in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year.
f) Sustainable finance activity also remained strong, with Singapore continuing to lead ASEAN’s market for green, social, sustainability and sustainability-linked (‘GSSSL’) bonds and loans, accounting for more than half of regional activity. Loan origination exceeded S$27 billion, and bond issuance remained resilient despite a modest global pullback.
27. The financial centre’s growth is supported by an effective and risk-proportionate AML/CFT framework that protects the integrity of Singapore’s financial system and economy, while remaining welcoming to legitimate business owners and investors.
a) The positive outcomes achieved in Singapore’s 5th round Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Mutual Evaluation validated MAS’ robust and risk-focused AML/CFT supervision of the financial sector, strong industry engagements and partnerships, and good risk awareness.
28. MAS continues to introduce new measures to sharpen the competitiveness of our financial sector and develop new pillars.
29. As shared by Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong at the ABS Annual Dinner on 25 June 2026, these include:
a) Deepening Singapore’s growth capital ecosystem to better mobilise and intermediate capital flows to support Asia’s long-term growth;
b) Scaling alternative risk-transfer solutions and risk intermediation capacity through the proposed Protected Cell Company framework; and
c) Strengthening Singapore’s role in gold trading, clearing and storage.
30. On gold, DPM Gan announced at the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference in June that MAS would be removing the 5% cap on physical investment precious metals under the tax incentive schemes for funds.
a) We would like to provide an update that this change will take effect from 1 August 2026, giving eligible funds and family offices greater flexibility to invest in physical gold in Singapore.
b) MAS will publish a circular soon to set out further details.
31. Today, I will update on our efforts to sustain the innovation, stability, security and trust that underpin Singapore’s position as a competitive and innovative financial sector. My comments will be in 2 areas:
a) First, scaling up innovation in the financial sector.
b) Second, strengthening resilience of our financial system to AI-enabled threats.
Scaling up innovation in the financial sector 32. Last month, MAS announced plans to establish the Future of Finance Institute (FFI).
33. Through the FFI, we will make significant investments in connections, capability, talent and infrastructure across the ecosystem to power the next phase of Singapore’s financial innovation.
a) FFI’s Innovation Garage will bring together financial institutions (FIs), FinTechs, and technology providers to co-create and validate new use cases. For example, we are forming collaborations in agentic AI in finance and fraud detection.
b) FFI will connect the financial industry with research capability in our universities and establish industry-relevant research programmes.
c) Financial institutions can accelerate their adoption journey by tapping on PathFin.ai to find industry-validated solutions from other FIs, technology companies and FinTechs.
d) AI adoption must proceed in tandem with governance and guardrails. Existing AI risk management toolkits will be continually updated and expanded with new playbooks, reusable guardrails, control libraries, and implementation templates in specific areas of AI use and risk to support FIs in deploying AI safely.
34. FFI will be operational in the next few months and scale up its programmes over the next year.
35. Developing the FinTech ecosystem in Singapore also continues to be a priority for MAS. There are today 1,900 FinTech companies employing close to 10,000 individuals. MAS will be renewing and enhancing our support for FinTech development. Through support for capability development, growth funding and manpower access, we aim to strengthen the growth prospects of the dynamic FinTech sector. We are reviewing these strategies and consulting with the Singapore FinTech Association and the sector and will share more later this year. Strengthening resilience of our financial system against AI-enabled threats 36. Let me turn now to strengthening resilience of our financial system against AI-enabled threats.
37. With rapid digitalisation in the financial sector, we have focused in the last few years on enhancing the resilience of our digital financial services against scams, operational disruptions and cybersecurity threats.
38. We have introduced significant measures and achieved meaningful progress in each of these areas.
39. On combatting scams, we have worked with banks to enhance their fraud surveillance capabilities and introduced calibrated frictions in digital transaction journeys to frustrate scams.
a) The amount of money that is protected from digital transfers using the Money Lock function has reached about S$47 billion as at May 2026, almost double the amount a year ago.
b) In 2025, Singapore saw a decrease in both scam cases and loss amounts for the first time since 2021.
40. To strengthen operational resilience for the delivery of critical services and functions, we have been working with FIs to step up the effectiveness of their risk management frameworks across four key pillars: operational risk; technology and cyber risk; third-party risk; and business continuity.
a) In March 2026, MAS consulted on updated Guidelines on Operational Risk Management as well as Third-Party Risk Management.
i. The new Guidelines set higher expectations for FIs to understand and manage risks in third-party arrangements.
b) We are currently consulting on amendments to the MAS Notices on Technology Risk Management which uplift technology resilience in FIs.
i. The proposed Notices mandate sound practices across key areas such as IT asset management, IT capacity planning, continuous system and security monitoring, as well as data backup and recovery.
41. As digital payments continue to be increasingly central to daily transactions, we have also worked with the industry to enhance retail payments resilience.
a) Stand-in processing for NETS debit payments at point of sales was implemented in August 2025, enabling contactless debit payments to continue up to a limit during a bank system disruption.
b) We are engaging with major banks to introduce similar stand-in capabilities for their digital retail payments so that the banks can continue to provide critical banking services such as payments and fund transfers during a system disruption.
42. Advances in frontier AI and quantum-computing add new challenges in the fight against scams and cyber threats. I will update on how MAS is working with the industry to address each in turn.
43. First, AI-enabled scams.
a) With AI, phishing can be made more personalised and persuasive at scale, using deep-fake impersonation, customisation of scam messages and other deception tactics.
44. The frictions introduced so far to digital banking transactions remain useful. These include:
a) More robust authentication methods such as in-app authorisation approvals via digital tokens instead of one-time passwords; and
b) Cooling periods for higher-risk transactions to give potential scam victims time to reconsider before funds are transferred.
45. At the same time, banks must harness AI and strengthen their controls to better defend against more sophisticated AI-enabled scam tactics.
a) MAS will review banks’ efforts to enhance the effectiveness of their fraud detection models, including how well they use AI.
b) MAS is also currently working with GovTech, the Singapore Police Force (SPF) and five banks on a proof-of-value to test whether AI models trained on cross-bank and public-private data can improve overall detection of scam transactions.
i. Findings from the proof-of-value are expected to be ready next year.
ii. The findings will guide further testing and enhancements to banks’ internal fraud models, as well as help determine the case for setting up an industry-level utility to pool data and employ AI.
46. MAS is also continuing to work with banks to study stronger authentication methods, such as FIDO-compliant security keys and software passkeys, so that the industry is ready when these are needed.
47. We will press ahead with these efforts to make the system harder to exploit, while continuing to work with industry and the public to sustain vigilance against increasingly sophisticated scams.
48. Let me turn now to AI-enabled cyber threats.
49. The capabilities of frontier AI models to find and exploit system vulnerabilities pose threats to FIs’ cyber defences.
a) Frontier AI model capabilities have two major implications:
i. Firstly, a higher volume of vulnerability findings, including in widely used software and shared technology and infrastructure relied on by multiple FIs; and
ii. Secondly, shorter discovery-to-exploit timelines, from weeks to days or even hours.
b) Together, these significantly compress the timelines for patching, testing, and remediation.
c) This has made it very challenging for system owners all over the world, including our FIs, to execute the volume of remediation in a timely and robust manner.
50. Frontier AI model capabilities necessitate an urgent step up in cyber-defence capabilities.
51. MAS first issued an advisory in April 2026 calling on FIs to further strengthen their cyber defences.
a) Apart from shortening the time to apply security patches, FIs were asked to accelerate the adoption of AI in various cybersecurity functions such as secure coding, vulnerability detection and security testing.
b) For example, FIs should widen the use of available advanced models to discover vulnerabilities.
52. MAS next introduced a new requirement on 1 July for key FIs to conduct AI-assisted red teaming on critical internet-facing systems.
a) FIs would need to leverage advanced AI models to identify potential attack paths that could enable cyber criminals to disrupt critical services or gain access to sensitive customer data.
b) The lessons learnt from these exercises will be shared with the broader industry, so that FIs can toughen their collective resilience.
53. MAS will step up our requirements further and will soon issue our supervisory expectations for key FIs to develop and submit comprehensive assessments and action plans to strengthen their defence against AI-enabled cyber threats. These should be underpinned by a risk assessment framework and address FIs’ ability to:
a) detect and patch vulnerabilities at scale;
b) test system changes before implementation; and
c) back up, restore and recover critical systems and services when disruptions occur.
54. AI and cyber developments are changing rapidly and there is a need to continually assess the threats posed and strengthen resilience measures. I would like to share that an ABS AI-Driven Cyber and Tech Risk Taskforce, or ABS-ACT, has been formed.
a) The Taskforce comprises MAS and senior technology and cyber leaders from major FIs to co-create strategies and measures against AI-driven threats.
b) The taskforce will focus on three key areas:
i. First, enhance FIs’ expertise in the use of AI in cybersecurity through industry sharing and engagement with cybersecurity and AI experts;
ii. Second, collaborate to conduct trials and validation of advanced AI-enabled tools; and
iii. Third, develop industry guidance on new measures, controls and solutions to better detect, prevent and respond to sophisticated AI-enabled threats.
55. Quantum-computing poses significant risks to the security of data and communications used by financial institutions in the medium term and requires early preparation.
a) The technology is still at a development stage. Some experts have given a 5-10 year estimated timeframe for when quantum-computing could break existing encryption techniques, although there are also some views that it could be less than 5 years.
b) Transition to quantum-safe practices however will take time and it is certainly not too early to make serious preparations.
56. Over the past few years, MAS had begun laying the groundwork for a quantum-safe financial sector.
a) We issued an advisory to FIs in 2024 highlighting quantum transition measures they should consider.
b) We have also done technical work with the industry and international counterparts on quantum-resilient cryptography solutions to secure communications.
57. MAS will next issue a set of supervisory expectations later this year with clear expectations, milestones and timelines for FIs’ migration towards quantum resilience. Progressive timelines will be set for FIs to:
a) Establish an inventory of their cryptographic assets;
b) Develop a prioritisation of the migration of vulnerable assets to quantum-resilient solutions; and
c) Build technical capabilities and governance frameworks to support a quantum-safe migration.
58. Our aim is for FIs to achieve quantum resilience before the end of this decade. MAS Financial Results for FY2025/26 59. I now turn to MAS’ financial results.
60. For the financial year ended 31 March 2026, MAS recorded a net profit of S$20.0 billion, driven by:
a) investment gains of S$39.8 billion, recorded on a lower of cost and market value basis;
b) partially offset by -
i. negative currency translation effects of S$16.4 billion from a stronger Singapore Dollar;
ii. net cost from MAS’ money market operations (or MMO) to manage banking system liquidity and other expenses of S$2.4 billion; and
iii. a contribution to the Government’s Consolidated Fund of S$1.0 billion.
61. Investment gains were strong, as the global economy remained resilient to repeated shocks and financial markets performed well. All asset classes across bonds and equities, developed and emerging markets posted good returns. While investment gains vary from year to year, this year’s outturn was similar to last year’s and above our 10-year historical average of S$18.3 billion. The outlook ahead is uncertain with continued energy market disruption, rising inflation and high equity market valuations posing risks to future investment returns.
62. The negative currency translation effects of S$16.4 billion were due mainly to the strengthening of the Singapore Dollar against the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The stronger Singapore Dollar has helped to dampen the effects of imported inflation, while resulting in negative currency translation effects. Such effects arise when MAS’ Official Foreign Reserves (OFR), which are held in foreign currencies, are reported in Singapore Dollars. These effects do not affect MAS’ ability to conduct monetary policy or support financial stability, which involve the use of foreign currency assets and liquidity.
63. Like other central banks, MAS incurs interest expense from MMO to absorb excess banking system liquidity. These costs reflect the volume of MMO and interest rate levels, both of which moderated over the year. Income from the Reserves Management Government Securities (or RMGS) partially offset this expense.
64. MAS will contribute S$1.0 billion to the Consolidated Fund, and return a further S$2.5 billion of its net profit to the Government. The amount to be paid to the Government reflects the offsetting of losses accumulated from previous years.
65. MAS maintains a globally diversified, liquid OFR portfolio to support our functions as a central bank. MAS’ financial results reflect the performance of global asset markets after accounting for the cost of MMO and negative currency translation effects from a stronger Singapore Dollar. As these factors have different effects from year to year, there will also be variability in MAS’ annual financial results. Conclusion 66. With that, I conclude my remarks. Thank you for your attention.