국방 예산과 안보 추세 질문

The Chairman : Head J. Mr Vikram Nair.

Security Trends

Mr Vikram Nair (Sembawang) : Chairman, I beg to move, "That the total sum to be allocated for Head J of the Estimates be reduced by $100".

Sir, we live in a dangerous world. Following the end of World War II, the great powers of the world came together to build a cooperative framework for international relations. This included the setting up of the United Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions – namely the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The Charter of the United Nations enshrines the prohibition against the use of force – except in self-defence. This rule is generally regarded as jus cogens – or a peremptory norm of international law – which means it is a rule that permits for no derogation.

Against this backdrop, Russia's invasion of Ukraine – in breach of this rule – is a direct challenge to the rule of international law itself. Russia is a member of the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) – the body that is supposed to lead the collective response of the UN to uphold international law.

When the rule of international law is threatened or breaks down, it leaves small nations like us particularly vulnerable.

Non-state actors are also becoming more powerful and potentially destabilising. The Israel-Hamas conflict has escalated dramatically since October, resulting in devastating loss of life. This is a conflict between Israel, which is – some argue – an occupying power in the Gaza; and Hamas, an organisation that has de facto control over the territory, but as a non-state actor. The violence has spread beyond the Gaza Strip, spilling into Lebanon and the Red Sea – threatening to destabilise the Middle East.

The world is likely be more volatile and unpredictable in the coming year. As a small country, Singapore is vulnerable to changes in its external security environment – a peaceful order is critical to Singapore's success.

Could the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) therefore provide an update on the major global and regional trends that MINDEF and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) are closely monitoring, and how MINDEF and SAF will be affected by these trends?

[(proc text) Question proposed. (proc text)]

MINDEF's Plans and Priorities

Mr Alex Yam (Marsiling-Yew Tee) : Mr Chairman, in the last few years, we stood witness to the winds of change sweeping across our globe. The pillars of international order have trembled and weakened under the weight of discord and conflict – casting shadows of uncertainty on all of us.

Let us take for a moment to reflect on the sobering reality that the Russia-Ukraine War, is now into its third year. It has transcended mere territorial battlegrounds and has spilled into the virtual realm of cyber warfare and disinformation – shaping perceptions and narratives everywhere. Ukraine's resilient defence, buoyed by initial international solidarity – albeit now more tenuous than it was at the start of the war – stands as a testament to the indomitable spirit of the Ukrainian people. Yet, regrettably, the horizon remains shrouded in ambiguity – devoid of a clear end to this protracted conflict.

And while the world's gaze was on Europe, another conflict rages now in the Middle East, where the ancient sands bear witness to a modern-day tragedy unfolding before all of us. The clash between Israel and Hamas serves as a poignant reminder of unresolved grievances and deep-seated animosities that have marred the region not just for decades – but for centuries and millennia. The hopes for a lasting peace seem now dashed against the rocks of historical enmity, leaving the world grappling for solutions in the face of entrenched divisions – not just far from our shores but within our own borders and between communities.

In this crucible of conflict, we witness the evolution of warfare itself, where traditional boundaries between conventional and unconventional tactics now blur into obscurity. Tactical innovation have birthed a new breed of weaponry, where hybrid tools serve as the vanguards of destruction in an ever-shifting landscape of battle.

Amidst this chaos and turmoil that grip our world, we must not lose sight of the implications that they hold for all of us – especially here in Singapore. Singapore, despite our small size, stands as a beacon of stability in a turbulent sea and it is incumbent upon us to remain vigilant, adaptable and resolute in the defence of our sovereignty.

As we navigate the treacherous waters, let us stand firm against the tides of adversity – fortified by the knowledge that together, we can overcome even the greatest of challenges.

In conclusion, I call upon the Minister for Defence to shed light on how MINDEF and the SAF are adapting plans and priorities to the evolving threats that confront us and how we can collectively chart a course together towards a future defined not by conflict, but by cooperation and peace.

Defence Spending

Mr Chong Kee Hiong (Bishan-Toa Payoh) : Chairman, the world is unfortunately experiencing more political turbulence and military strife. We have witnessed two major conflicts in the last few years and despite many international appeasement attempts, there are no signs of abatement. The rising temperature of US-China relations further adds to the global woes.

Wary of the implications and the undercurrents of all these discords, many governments have increased their defence spending and some have gone on defence shopping sprees to fill their capability gaps.

In Singapore's case, we have always put national defence as our priority. It has always been a non-negotiable since our Independence. In spite of the trade-offs and opportunity cost, our Government – with the trust and confidence of our citizens – has made steady investments in defence, as we have understood the importance of self-reliance.

It is in this light that I would like to ask the Minister for Defence about our defence expenditure. What are the projections for our defence spending this year and what are the Ministry's priorities? What are the main issues or challenges in the process of procurement and maintenance and how is the Ministry overcoming these constraints?

SAF's Transformation Plans

Mr Kwek Hian Chuan Henry (Kebun Baru) : Chairman, as my Parliamentary colleagues have said, it has been over two years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Ukraine faces mounting shortages in traditional weapons systems and ammunition, their military has had to deploy low-cost drones on an improvised basis – which they have done with considerable success.

Earlier this month, the Ukrainian President announced the creation of a separate branch of the Ukrainian Armed Forces devoted to drones. This is not the first conflict where unmanned aerial vehicles are being deployed in significant numbers, but the scale at which the drones have been deployed has resulted in major changes to the warfighting on the battlefield.

In fact, the unprecedented numbers have led some to call this the world's first drone war. Apart from electronic-warfare drone swarms, we are also seeing the use of cyber warfare not just to target civilian infrastructure but also to achieve battlefield intelligence dominance in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

In the Red Sea crisis, the Houthis are weaponising civilian technology to disrupt international trade flow and leveraging asymmetrical warfare by using anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. In the coming years, we can expect that warfare will be further shaped by the use of artificial intelligence and direct-energy weapons.

With all this going on, can MINDEF share on the progress of the SAF's Next Generation transformation plans? With technological advances changing the face of warfare so rapidly, how can MINDEF ensure that that the SAF is able to deal with evolving security threats in a timely, but financially prudent manner?

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SAF's Acquisitions

Mr Don Wee (Chua Chu Kang) : : Chairman, at last year's COS debate, Defence Minister Dr Ng said to the House that "we must never forget that defence is a long-term business." He went on to elaborate that for the SAF, major systems and platforms take 10 to 15 years to conceptualise, build and integrate into its fighting force, assuming all goes well.

I am glad that Singapore has always taken a long-term view on defence. We cannot wait until conflict is at our doorstep, in order to prepare and defend ourselves.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, governments around the world have been rushing to build and buy new weapons as the war has put a significant strain on their stockpiles. However, even with increased spending in defence, it could be years before countries start to reap the dividends of their increased investment. Such are the unfortunate consequences of not making consistent investments in defence.

In March last year, the online publication Defense News reported that Italy was considering the quick procurement of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to serve as gap fillers before long-term projects took shape. The war in Ukraine has brought to the fore the importance of ground warfare capabilities, and Italy's stock of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were ageing and depleting.

I hope that in Singapore, we take in the hard lessons learnt by other countries. We cannot wait until things are heating up to prioritise investing in defence. Hence, MINDEF previously informed the House that the SAF would be adding more platforms and capabilities over the next decade.

As the nature of conflict evolves, it is important for Singapore to be able to effectively defend herself against increasingly sophisticated conventional military and non-conventional threats. In particular, the war in Ukraine has shown us the continued importance of countries maintaining high-end, conventional military capabilities. Would MINDEF provide an update on the progress of the SAF's acquisitions and capability development plans?

F-35B Fighter Jets Acquisition

Ms Poh Li San (Sembawang) : Mr Chairman, MINDEF had previously announced plans to acquire the F-35B fighter jets. Can MINDEF provide an update on this acquisition? As a small country with no strategic depth, it is important for Singapore to have an effective military to deter potential aggression. We are keenly aware that it is necessary for us to modernise our military and ensure that the SAF can protect Singapore.

Over the past few years, MINDEF has provided updates on the modernisation of the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) through the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft and other systems, which play a pivotal role in a nation's defence capabilities.

In March 2019, MINDEF announced that it would purchase four F-35B aircraft, with an eye towards procuring a fleet of F-35s to replace the RSAF's ageing F-16 fleet. Since then, MINDEF has announced that it would acquire an additional eight aircraft, for a total of twelve. The Minister for Defence had also said that the RSAF would take delivery of its first four aircraft in 2026.

However, over the past few years, the world seen many supply chain challenges, which have impacted the timelines for the delivery of some military platforms. Could MINDEF provide an update please?

Unmanned Technology

Mr Vikram Nair : Chairman, given Singapore's declining birth rates, we can expect that our full-time national servicemen and operationally ready National Servicemen (NSmen) cohorts will shrink in the coming years. The SAF will need to do more, with less manpower. It is clear that new technologies have the potential to help organisations optimise and streamline operations.

Notably, the use of drones and other unmanned technologies can help to make up for tighter manpower constraints, and I understand that MINDEF has already made significant progress in this area. Unmanned technologies also enhance the military's capability edge. Mechanised warfare reduces the need to put troops in danger. There is also an ability to fight with precision, while limiting human frailties and vulnerabilities. For this reason, I ask about updates and developments in this area regularly in COS debates.

I am heartened that MINDEF normally reports impressive developments on this front each year. During last year's COS debate, the Minister for Defence highlighted that when used at scale, unmanned platforms in the air, land and sea would be a game changer in the future. We have seen examples of drones being used in ongoing conflicts, such as in Ukraine and in the Middle East.

Given the role that unmanned and autonomous technologies will play in the military domain moving forward, it is more important than ever for the SAF to utilise and integrate such technologies. The Minister for Defence also said that more unmanned aerial and ground vehicles would be introduced in our combat units, and the RSN would be shifting towards a force structure, in which half of its vessels would be unmanned.

On the flip side though, automated technologies also pose greater risk to our forces, given barriers to entry and costs are relatively low. This may provide opportunities for enemies, including non-state actors, to use these technologies to threaten Singapore's securities.

Could MINDEF provide an update on how the SAF has been integrating unmanned technologies to enhance its capabilities, and also dealing with the potential threat from these technologies?

Evolving Military Threats

Mr Desmond Choo (Tampines) : Chairman, in January this year, Houthi rebels fired what the Associated Press reported as their "largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles" targeting shipping in the Red Sea. And just days ago, the US Central Command said that it had observed the Houthis using underwater drones against ships for the first time.

There is growing commentary on the increasingly consequential role drones will play as a terrorist tactic and in the wars of the future. Many of these drones are relatively inexpensive. They can also be deployed at scale and pose a significant threat to our security. One-way attack drones, like the ones that the Houthis are using in the Red Sea, are estimated to cost roughly US$2,000.

In its attacks on 7 October 2023, Hamas deployed commercial quadcopter drones with explosives to disrupt Israeli military infrastructure. In the Ukrainian-Russian war, drones have changed the complex of what was a conventional war. The attacks have changed because of attack and kamikaze drones. There were reports of commercial drones being retrofitted with explosives to attack conventional armies. Furthermore, there has been greater use of drones for surveillance and to direct artillery fire.

Even the most advanced militaries are still grappling with how best to respond to these threats and new developments. One British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) report described how the United States (US) Marine Corps had modified its fighter jets to serve an air defence role, in response to Houthi drone attacks.

The US' interceptions have proven to be effective. However, one can imagine that the risks to servicemen to perform these missions are significant and the cost of each mission is high. If adversaries were to scale up such attacks, existing military responses would not be sustainable.

We have not even examined how a swarm drone attack could be successfully defended, especially when it could be fully autonomous in time to come. Large swarms of drones can overwhelm conventional defences. This leads to questions on whether current air defences are adequate.

The threat that I have described is just one that we are aware of today. But bad actors are continuing to find even more creative and cost-effective ways to evade and weaken conventional military defences. These tactics could exploit new technologies or commercially available, dual-use platforms.

How is MINDEF/SAF meeting the drones challenge? Given the rapidly changing security environment, what is MINDEF/SAF doing to safeguard against emerging and evolving technologies and tactics that can be used to undermine our security? How is MINDEF training its personnel to meet evolving threats?

Threats in the Digital Domain

Mr Shawn Huang Wei Zhong (Jurong) : Chairman, the nature of warfare is evolving, with battles no longer confined to the traditional physical domains of the sea, air and land. It is taking place in the digital domain. Increasingly, it is possible to inflict more damage by infiltrating networks, sabotaging government or civilian infrastructure and disrupting day-to-day operations. Similar to conventional warfare, such attacks target a country by eroding trust in the government, undermine social cohesion and weaken military industrial capacity.

We have seen this strategy play out, for example, the hacking operations on Israeli sites and apps, as well as multiple Internet blackouts in the Gaza Strip since the start of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Closer to home, we also remember the disruption caused by the SingHealth data breach in 2018, the distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on StarHub in 2016 and the 2017 cyberattack on MINDEF systems.

In view of Singapore's vulnerability to such attacks, could the Minister for Defence provide views on what MINDEF/SAF is doing to address threats in the digital domain, including steps that the Digital and Intelligence Service (DIS) is taking to guard against these threats?

Updates on the Digital and Intelligence Service

Mr Don Wee : Chairman, in a commentary published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Asst Prof Michael Raska wrote that the main source of strategic advantage in the next 10 years will lie in the ability of modern military organisations to fully integrate innovations in artificial intelligence, cyber power and data science, as well as cognitive science and robotics across all levels of operations and warfare.

For the SAF to maintain its edge, it should continuously evolve to take advantage of new digital technologies. The SAF should also continuously develop responses to defend against new threats.

In view of these rapidly evolving developments, I think that the establishment of the SAF's DIS over a year ago was very timely. It may take many years to fully integrate various digital and cyber capabilities and assets across all levels of operations, and of course, across the three Services, and for the service personnel to build up operational experience. The Ministry is taking the right and necessary steps.

Can MINDEF provide a progress update on the DIS? What steps have been taken to build up its capabilities? How has the DIS been working together with the other agencies in Singapore that operate in the digital domain, in order to boost our security?

Enhancing SAF Training and Readiness

Mr Zhulkarnain Abdul Rahim (Chua Chu Kang) : Chairman, many SAF regulars and NSmen have had the opportunity to train overseas, which allows them to gain ground experience and apply their skills and knowledge in an operational context. This is especially critical for certain types of training that would otherwise be challenging or impossible here, given Singapore's space constraints.

As our global outlook becomes more uncertain, we cannot assume that we will always be able to maintain our current access to overseas training areas. It is, therefore, important to explore different ways to ensure that our NSmen and women train well and remain operationally ready.

Can MINDEF provide an update on efforts to improve local and overseas training? In particular, how are we leveraging technological advancements to maximise the value and efficiency of the SAF's training? What opportunities has the SAF taken advantage of, to provide our servicemen with practical experiences in either conflict zones or humanitarian missions abroad?

Using Technology to Improve Processes

Mr Patrick Tay Teck Guan (Pioneer) : Chairman, my cut is on using technology to improve processes. While the worst of the pandemic might be behind us, it has impacted how we live and work, and pushes us towards embracing new ways of working, specifically going digital and leveraging technologies.

From cloud technology to AI tools to robotic assistance, we have read about how these technologies are transforming the modern workplace. As the world becomes more digitalised, expectations for greater productivity and efficiency will likely ensue. We will need to seize the opportunity to lock in the digital gain and deliver better and also faster.

MINDEF and the SAF has embraced digitalisation and modernised many generations of our forces since decades ago. I would like to ask how MINDEF and SAF is using technology, including generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), to improve the day-to-day experience of its servicemen and servicewomen and uplift their collective capabilities?

Defending Our Interests Underwater

Ms Sylvia Lim (Aljunied) : Sir, as a maritime nation, Singapore is dependent on unfettered access to sea lanes of communication and air routes, bringing goods and people to and from our shores. Disruption of these connections could prove costly.

Indeed, continued investments in our Air Force and Navy, as well as efforts to work with regional and international partners, provide Singapore with an added guarantee of such access.

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Our nation's interests beneath the waves are no less important. Submarine cables bring data from everything from our financial markets to design blueprints and overseas orders to and from Singapore. These cables also help connect the Middle East, South Asia, and with us in Southeast and Northeast Asia.

I understand that there are even plans to increase the number of submarine cable landing sites in Singapore. There are also plans to provide electricity to Singapore via undersea cables. They come in addition to undersea pipelines to carry gas, including from West Natuna in Indonesia. We know that these undersea assets can become targets for attack or sabotage during crisis and are also subject to accidental damage during peacetime.

This is evident from the 2022 Nord Stream 2 explosion, as well as the severing of submarine cables in the Baltic Sea and between Taiwan and Matsu last year. These risks are more real, with increased tensions in Asia and the South China Sea, driven by US-PRC competition and growing maritime traffic. Could the Minister for Defence assure Singaporeans of our ability to protect and repair these undersea assets independently and in conjunction with partners? What are the efforts to enhance such capabilities?

The Chairman : Mr Alex Yam. Take your two cuts together.

Transnational Threats

Mr Alex Yam (Marsiling-Yew Tee) : Mr Chairman, in our rapidly changing world, the nature of threats we face is evolving. We now on confront a growing array of non-conventional security challenges. Terrorism, cyber-attacks and the spread of disinformation are on the rise, both in frequency and impact.

Just last October, a devastating terrorist attack orchestrated by Hamas struck Israel, claiming the lives of innocent individuals. This heinous act sparked a brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas. Israel's disproportionate force and violence, despite the right to self-defence, has led to the loss of thousands of lives and the displacement of countless others.

The repercussions of this conflict extend far beyond their immediate battlegrounds. Here, in Southeast Asia, a prolonged Israel-Hamas confrontation heightens the risk of radicalisation, posing a threat not just to Singapore but to our neighbours as well.

Furthermore, cyber-attacks and the dissemination of false information have become preferred tactics for hostile entities seeking to further their agendas. These attacks are insidious, widespread and challenging to trace, capable of inflicting severe damage on our critical infrastructure and undermining public trust. Given Singapore's heavy reliance on digital technologies, we must remain vigilant against such threats.

ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Cybersecurity and Information Centre

Take, for example, the issue of ransomware, which remains a serious concern in Singapore. Ransomware groups are becoming more sophisticated, swiftly extracting data and using tailored threats to coerce victims into paying up.

It is clear therefore the challenges cannot be tackled by any single nation alone. Cooperation and coordination are essential. Therefore, I am eager to learn about the strategies and initiatives undertaken by MINDEF to address these common threats that transcend our national borders.

To address these challenges, Singapore took the proactive step of establishing the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Cybersecurity and Information Centre for Excellence, the ADMM ACICE, in 2021. This move came amidst the growing digitalisation of society and the increasing prevalence of cyberattacks as well as disinformation and misinformation. I am pleased that the physical centre for ACICE was officially launched on 18 July last year.

This initiative is crucial because cyber and information threats are multifaceted and constantly evolving. It is clear that collaboration with other ASEAN member states and international partners is essential.

Therefore, I am also keen to find out from the Minister for Defence about the progress of ACICE and its plans for the future. How does ACICE intend to build upon its existing work to enhance cybersecurity and combat disinformation?

The Chairman : Minister Ng Eng Hen.

The Minister for Defence (Dr Ng Eng Hen) : Mr Chairman, Mr Vikram Nair began his cut by asserting that our world is a much more dangerous world. Subsequent Members of Parliament (MPs) gave their spiels on the events around us. I do not think anyone in this House or out of it needs to be convinced that indeed the world has become a more dangerous place.

Just last week was 24 February, another day in infamy. We are now in the third year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As many of the Members rightly pointed out, the Israel-Hamas conflict risks a contagion effect over the Middle East and there is a de facto trade war between the US and China.

We are all concerned that the US and China can clash over Taiwan. If that happens, that will be a very bleak Asia for a very long time.

When was this region beset with such trouble? If you remember your Shakespeare: "double, double toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble".

The last time the region experienced this kind of turmoil and potential danger was probably in the 1980s during the Sino-Viet Conflicts that lasted from 1979 to 1991. The Singapore's Pioneer Generation (PG) lived through those tumultuous, perilous times, not only through that period, but for 60 years. The Japanese Occupation in the 1940s, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, Konfrontasi. 60 years. Mr Lee Kuan Yew recounted that he had to sing four national anthems because of the political upheavals that lasted 60 years. Those experiences hardened the PG that were born in the 1920s and 1930s.

And the first order of the day when we gained Independence was to form the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). It was a visceral reaction.

My generation and for some of us in this House, were born in the 1950s and 1960s, the Merdeka Generation (MG). We lucked out. Many families like mine were poor at the start, but as Singapore prospered, so did we. It was the heyday for open trade and liberalisation, and when the Cold War ended in 1991, the global economy took off, lifting standards of living even higher today.

So, Singapore's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the highest in Asia. When did we exceed Japan, the second highest? In 2007.

With a strong dollar, overseas travel has become less expensive. I still remember as a boy when £1 was more than S$7. Fish-and-chips was expensive at that time.

Prices in Japan were prohibitive. Now, hordes of Singaporeans go to Japan – not quite expensive.

Sixty years of confrontation the PG lived through. The MG has lived through 30 years of relative peace. And we have assumed that this is the norm. Which is the norm – what the PG went through, or what the MG went through?

If you had asked me even five years ago, I would have said that the current generation – they are lumped together, Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z and other alphabets – would be just as lucky as the MG. Because despite Brexit, the European Union (EU) held – if you remember, the EU was formed in 1993.

During that time, there was a rising economic co-dependency with Russia, even in energy supplies. Before the Ukraine invasion, Russia supplied 55% of gas consumed in Germany. You do not buy gas in that proportion, if you did not believe in peace and lasting peace.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine dealt a death blow to Europe's integration for a generation at least. Worse still, seeds of future discord and conflict have been sown. As the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell said at the Shangri-La Dialogue held here last year, "This war is changing the role of Europe. Europe was and is a project for peace and about peace. But now we face a world where war is something that is in every corner, and these corners are close to our houses."

In the Middle East, the signed Abraham Accords held out the future of accelerated peace and progress in that region. The zeitgeist following the Abraham Accords, not seen or thought possible for a long time, was to avoid conflict and find common cause so that that region could develop economically. This was a dictum following Deng Xiaoping: "to get rich is glorious", instead of war. And for this higher cause, even Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman reversed his position with the Houthis in Yemen, whom he had unleashed deadly strikes on earlier on. So, in this conflict, there is a reversal of roles. The US is striking the Houthis and the Saudis are saying: I want to make peace. That attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023 upended, delayed, if not decimated, these aspirations in the Middle East.

Between the US and China, a trade war has already started. The plan on the US side is to conscribe it to limited areas, particularly high-end technology that have a bearing on national security. In theory, this seems possible. "Small yard, high fences" is the neat way that the US puts it. But in practice, it is much harder because in the name of national security, the yard could get bigger. Right now, a bill in the US Congress targets to exclude Chinese biopharma manufacturing because, I suppose, you could produce something, pharmaceuticals, that weakens your national security. Tomorrow, it may be electric vehicles.

And of course, there is capital, the most fungible of all assets. If a country or company invests large sums in China, would it be seen as helping the potential adversary? And if so, what punitive measures or restrictions might be taken against that country?

In this inter-connected world, will borders erected for national security regress the world to alliances and trade blocs as it did pre-World Wars I and II, and the Cold War?

We are seeing this before our very eyes. That is the privilege of this generation. We are seeing it play out: all the world's a stage. It will take one, two decades for these various scenarios to come to fruition, whatever the outcomes.

Two weeks ago, I was at the Munich Security Conference, the 60th. They titled this 60th Munich Security Conference as "Lose-Lose?" because everywhere they turned, and they analysed all the situations, every scenario they had talked about, both sides lose, and the world loses.

This was my 12th Munich Security Conference. In 2014, I attended the 50th Munich Security Conference. There was a special session organised. I will never forget it. On stage was Henry Kissinger, Helmut Schmidt, former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. All three gentlemen have passed away since. It has been the 50th Munich Security Conference. Helmut Schmidt and Henry Kissinger had been present in the inaugural Munich Security Conference in 1963. It was such a special forum. It had been 50 years of peace. The mood was one of celebration. I remember President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing saying that Europe had eliminated the concept of war. It was just one decade ago.

All those dreams have been decimated. I can assure this House that surprises and unintended consequences are in store, some linked, others completely out of the blue. When the ambient temperature of geopolitics rises, sparks and fires will arise from multiple sources.

So, I have reversed my assessment for today's generation in Singapore and elsewhere. The risk of regional and even global conflict, even in the next decade, has become non-zero. I do not make this assessment lightly.

What are the precise odds? It is not productive. We are not Nostradamus. It is imponderable and your guess is as good as mine. But the most important question, I think, is what some Members here have said – Vikram Nair, Alex Yam and others. What can Singapore, as a small country, and Singaporeans, do realistically to prepare ourselves as best as we can for disruptions and unintended consequences? Because there will be disruptions and intended consequences – that we can be sure. How we meet it, we are not sure.

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I remember US Defense Secretary Gates; I quote him often for this quote. He was addressing West Point Military Academy graduates. And he told the West Point graduates that for the last decade, the US Department of Defense's record for predicting where they would be within a year of the conflict, was perfect. They never got it right. One year, with all its machinery of intelligence collection and prediction, the US Administration never got it right. So, we cannot pretend to know what will come and yet, we have to prepare. So, how do we prepare Singapore for this uncertain future?

First, I think, we should recognise that Singaporeans have more to protect and with more resources to do so, compared to the PG and MG. Some Singaporeans may remember the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990. Among the justifications for the invasion, Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing oil – there was a particular field, it is called Al-Rumaylah oil field, which straddles both states, across the borders. Iraq said, "you are pumping from your side, but you are siphoning off from my side." Geographically, I think it is possible, but that was the claim, anyhow. Wealthy, small Kuwait with its rich resources was a tempting and lucrative victim. Wealthy, small Singapore can be a lucrative target, without a strong defence.

In that invasion, the US came to the rescue of Kuwait and led 42 countries to join forces in an air and ground war. The SAF provided support for casualties. We deployed a 30-member medical team to the region.

But I want to make clear here, that if ever something similar happens to us here in Singapore, this Government, MINDEF and the SAF do not plan on the basis that we can depend on another country to come to our rescue. If Singaporeans will not or cannot defend Singapore, there is no backstop. That is the simple truth. A strong SAF acts a deterrent against aggression towards us and keeps adventurism at bay.

When I listen to the speeches of MPs, it was heartening because all of you understand, across the aisle, of whatever political persuasion, we are on our own. And I want to thank Members of this House for supporting MINDEF's Budget every year.

We do spend precious dollars consistently on defence, as some of you observed. Money which could have benefited other causes, but we know that without security, there can be no progress. Singapore was ranked the sixth most peaceful country in the world in the latest Global Peace Index. I do not know and do not want to find out, what our ranking would have been if we had not put in the necessary investments to build a strong SAF. I think that experiment would be too costly.

Mr Chong Kee Hiong asked to give us details on the defence spending this year and subsequent years. Let me do that.

In the coming Financial Year, MINDEF projects an expenditure of around $20.2 billion – a 2.5% increase from last year, FY23. If you compare this to 2022, the increase is higher, but that was because we were catching up – projects and activities disrupted by the pandemic.

Despite nominal increases for defence spending over the past years, the share as a percentage of GDP has been falling mainly because Singapore's GDP has been growing faster than defence spending. That is a good outcome.

With your permission, Mr Chairman, I have asked the Clerks to distribute handouts.

The Chairman : Please go ahead. [ Handouts were distributed to hon Members. ]

Dr Ng Eng Hen : Thank you. These handouts are instructive, so, while you are listening, take your time to peruse it. You can also access this through SG PARL MP mobile app.

First, our GDP. As Members can see, two decades ago, we were spending 5% of GDP on defence. By the way, every time Budget comes around, I pick up and compare figures. The average Middle East spending, Middle Eastern countries is about 4% of GDP. Europe, of course, is undergoing huge turmoil, they have not spent even 2%.

But two decades ago, we were spending 5% of GDP on defence. Now, we are down to about 3%. That is a 40% reduction in share.

Now, we could be decreasing because Total Government spending has been either maintained or is reducing. But total Government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased, from an average of 16% in the early 2000s to an average of 18% in recent years. I think if you listen to Deputy Prime Minister Wong, there are structural reasons why our economy and our revenue flows will not be as high as before. I think it is good that we reach this level, and some of you have asked, including Mr Chong what are our future defence spending is, I would say that our spending can stay around 3%, move up or down a bit, but in this range over the next decade, with one important caveat: barring conflicts and wars, obviously.

Mr Alex Yam, Mr Henry Kwek and Mr Don Wee asked "That is the overall picture, but where has this spending gone? And how are you preparing the SAF?" These are excellent questions.

Let me make clear the decrease in defence budget as a percentage of GDP was not because the SAF cut back on what is necessary to defend Singapore. Our defence capabilities have never been compromised. It is also not because our manpower has come down. I think Mr Vikram noted that our NS cohorts, he said, "will be coming down." I must tell him it has already come down. And the last time we were in a dragon year, all of us expected that to have good news. Today, our total fertility rate is 0.97. We all expect a mini dragon. We never had real dragons for a long time since 1988. That was the last real dragon. Beyond that, every dragon cycle are mini dragons. I hope we are proven wrong this year, but let us leave that to another Ministry.

It has come down because as various Defence Ministers and including MPs have said, we sustained defence spending and that was the most effective and efficient means of building a strong military over the longer term. So, today, we are reaping dividends of the sums we put in steadily over the past 20 years. And if we continue to invest wisely, we will reap more dividends in the future.

If you read the newspapers today, what the Denmark, either the Defence Minister or Prime Minister was saying, "we should cut back on welfare to increase our defence spending." We never want to be in that position. We actually want to do both. Steady long-term defence spending enables platforms and capabilities to mature over the necessary timeline and to enhance synergy and reap efficiencies.

Let me illustrate to make it more clear with practical examples along the way. Ms Poh Li San asked about our F-35s. So, that is a good place to start, to illustrate what I mean. The F-35s when operational will put the RSAF in the Premier League. That is it. The sixth generations are being developed, but it will take some time. So, when they are operational, we will be in the Premier League.

When did we start looking at the F-35 programme? You think it is a matter of course, right? You pay the money, you get it. But we are in a very, very different position. We are in Singapore – 5.5 million people, looking at F-35s. And we started evaluating the F-35s in 2004, 20 years ago. First, as a Security Cooperation Participant, and then we dipped our feet in the water tentatively, ordered four aircrafts for evaluation. But since then, as Ms Poh Li San recognised, events have overtaken that. Because since that period, the F-35s have been deployed by other air forces for real missions, which is the final test of any evaluation, final test of any combat platform. So, for example, the US and the UK, their F-35s, they conducted successful strikes against ISIS in the Middle East. More recently, the US used their F-35s to locate and identify surface-to-air missile sites of Russian units in Ukraine. This information was shared with NATO countries.

So, to-date, more than 900 F-35s have flown in operations around the world. When we began our evaluation, these were not the numbers. And their battlefield successes have prompted more countries – Switzerland, Germany, to jump on board the F-35 programme. Other countries, South Korea, Japan, UK, have placed additional orders. So, a question was asked whether there are supply chain disruptions? Not for the F-35, in fact, the reverse. More orders have gone in because around the world, they have recognised that the F-35 is a proven fifth generation fighter aircraft; advanced sense and strike capabilities.

So, globally, there are close to 2,500 F-35s, and that is a healthy pipeline on the order book. Because of that the price is now more competitive. In fact, if you buy an F-35, put in an order for it, it is not like a car, but you understand what I am saying. If you put in an order for an F-35 today, the price is comparable to an F-15EX. That is how competitive it is.

So, we will capitalise on this window of opportunity to accelerate our F-35 programme. We have ordered, as Ms Poh Li San said four plus eight F-35Bs. This time, we are putting in an order to acquire eight F-35As, adding to our 12 F-35Bs.

The RSAF could take these decisions deliberately, cool and calculated mindset, because of the steady defence spending over the years. And this allowed our mid-life upgrade of F-16Cs, our Ds and D+s, which the F-35 will replace. The F-16s, after their mid-life upgrade, will be drawn down progressively from mid-2030 onwards.

We will receive the first four F-35Bs which we ordered four years ago in 2026; it seems to be on schedule. And the subsequent eight F-35Bs that we are in 2028. That is a couple of years from now. The F-35A variant that I am announcing today, if Parliament approves this Budget, will arrive around 2030.

We have to deprioritise other projects for this opportunity buy, but we have done our calculations and we think that this is the best time to put in the order for the F-35As. Why? Because the F-35As are designed for greater endurance. They have the ability to carry a payload at higher capacity. They complement the F-35Bs which are short, take off and vertical landing, because the F-35As are bigger, bulkier, bigger range, and provide more operational flexibility.

In sum, after the F-16s retire, the RSAF will operate F-35As, F-35Bs and F15SGs. Premier League. Capable of performing the full suite of missions required to defend Singapore skies. This will be a capable Air Force above all to protect our skies.

For the Navy, our first invincible class submarine returned to Singapore last year. You did not notice. If you notice, then it is not doing its job. Submarines are a hefty investment and obviously, I cannot use them for National Day Parade, like I do our planes. But rest assured that our submarines will silently and stealthily protect the waters around us.

Later this year, we will commission her, as well as launch the fourth and final submarine in Kiel. This submarine programme, custom made for the RSN – this is the first time we have got them custom-made. Previously, we ordered used submarines, adapted for our use, of course. But this is the first time, from scratch, we dealt with the defence supplier, this is what we need. When did we start this? 2000. Twenty years ago.

Defence is a long-term business. And as some of you rightly pointed out, including Mr Don Wee, you cannot decide that you are going to have defences up. President Zelensky spoke at the recent Munich Security Conference, in person. He sent a chill down the audience's spine, when he said, I think, "You European countries, are not ready for an invasion!" Ukraine, despite all its preparations, was not ready.

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For the next few days, that was the question back and forth, "Are we ready for an invasion?" So, if you look The Economist's front page, the title is: Is Europe Ready? It is not. Because they have not committed to that defence spending. Questions were asked, what happens if the US – they are looking at elections, too – what happens if the US reduces its commitment? And only now are the Europeans saying we have to be responsible for our own defence.

Defence spending is a long-term business and because we stuck to it, all four submarines will be operational around Singapore waters by 2028. Submarines are a strategic asset. Those of you who are military buffs will understand what I mean.

For the Army, the next-generation Armoured Tracked Carriers (ATCs) and the next-generation Howitzers will be brought into service. The ATCs will operate alongside the Bronco Tracked Carrier and replace the older BV206. Some of you may have used it – more protected, more mobile. I know that some Members here are from the artillery and will appreciate the difference between the new Howitzer and the old field Howitzer 2000 that they operated. You have memories of your old Howitzer that you operated. The new Howitzers are self-loading, shoot faster and move, and require 60% less manpower.

Mr Vikram Nair and Mr Henry Kwek asked what about unmanned capabilities. The Ukraine situation, the situation in the Middle East, have proven that unmanned platforms are already part of today's current war, not even future. And it is a given in any modern military, and it will be increasingly used, and we will do the same. So, this year, the Navy's Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) goes fully operational. In other words, no person on it, fully unmanned, automated. It will patrol the Singapore Strait alongside our Littoral Mission Vessels and patrol vessels.

Locally designed, manufactured, these USVs, fully autonomous, can navigate our busy shipping lanes. Touch wood, that is what they promised me. It is a busy shipping strait, and these are unmanned, but I think they were put to trials and they performed.

In addition, our Navy ships will have Close-Range Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by the second half of this year to extend their range for surveillance. So, UAVs on ships.

The UAVs will also filter down to the soldiers in the Army. Some of you are sci-fi buffs and you know the movies where you have your own personal android that follows you that can survey and shoot people and protect you. We are not there yet, but our Army soldiers can use their own micro-UAVs.

They will be an asset for soldiers on foot for last-mile surveillance. And we are tapping on a new generation of NSmen who are tech-savvy. So, for example, Corporal First Class Zubayr. He is an avid drone enthusiast. They tapped on his expertise. He comes from 3rd Battalion Singapore Infantry Regiment (3 SIR) to refine the drone tactics, techniques, procedures, including launching and operating from a Terrex. And we will continue to harness the skills of our NSmen to strengthen our capabilities.

Mr Desmond Choo, Mr Vikram Nair asked if we can use it, and they gave examples of current missions in Ukraine, in the Middle East, others can use it against us. You are absolutely right. You have to assume that a potential aggressor can do the same. They can scale it.

Terrorists can use low-cost drones to launch attacks here. It makes very little sense to launch a couple of million-door missiles to attack a couple of thousand dollars drone. The attrition of costs will bankrupt you. So, that cannot be the modus operandi. We are alive to these security threats. We set up groups to brainstorm and develop sustainable countermeasures.

And they include off-the-shelf solutions: jammer guns, or our usual rifles fitted with a smart fire control system, an on-board computer to accurately shoot down a small drone.

Mr Shawn Huang and Mr Don Wee said that the digital domain is an increasingly contested battleground. I agree completely with them. And that was the reason we formed the DIS in 2022, to build up competencies, to work closely with other national agencies. Mr Alex Yam also talked about this. The DIS co-organised the Critical Infrastructure Defence Exercise (CIDeX) in November last year.

We had about 200 frontline cyber defenders, 25 other national agencies. Scenarios simulated attacks by both ransomware, some of you talked about it, and nation-state cyber attackers on our key infrastructure: power, water, 5G telecommunications. So, in other words, you sit them in a room, you simulate the attacks, how do we defend?

This exercise will be like their live firing, will be held regularly to expand and cover more sectors. We are building a digital range because you cannot do it on live systems, right? But we have a digital range that replicates these systems. That digital range will be completed in 2026. It will allow us to scale, add complexity and realism in this digital domain.

All in all, when it concerns hardware and systems for SAF, our steady defence spending has built up an SAF that is modernised and effective with a full suite of capabilities against threats: air, land, sea and cyberspace. This is a short summary statement and it belies the decades of hard work and commitment by our servicemen and women, including some in the House, and your constant support for MINDEF's budget.

I have shown Members what it looks like in the ORBAT in the handout, but we must never forget people. We are only as good as our people, no matter how advanced our platforms. And we have made sizeable investments in building up infrastructure to train our NSmen and Regulars. So, if you look at the handout, SAFTI City Phase 1, together with our three Instrumented Battle Circuits.

During my time, some of you maybe also, when you do exercises, you use blanks and bang, bang, bang, bang. So, I pretend to shoot you, you pretend to shoot back and nobody dies. Well, we have come a long way from that. Now, it is transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS), which are electronic RFID things. If somebody shoots you, you are "dead". If your vehicle is shot, it does not move. It has become more realistic.

We have built that up, but for urban built-up areas, we do not have that. That is what SAFTI City Phase 1 will do. Instrumented Battle Circuits means you go into a building, in a room, it is the same outfit, and if you are shot, you are shot. So, it is very good training because you can do an after-action review (AAR), video playback, see what you have done wrong.

Shoalwater Bay Training Area is near completion. Last year, we deployed 4,300 personnel, 450 platforms to Shoalwater Bay . It was the largest-ever edition of Exercise Wallaby. So, not only is Singapore committed to its defence, we have friends who are willing to open up their country to allow us to put all these platforms there.

And this year, the expanded training area will allow us to increase the scale of exercise by close to 50%, with an increase in training duration for six to nine weeks. Then, there is the adjacent Greenvale Training Area. The SAF will have a combined training area 10 times the size of Singapore. We can deploy up to 14,000 personnel, 2,400 vehicles and equipment annually. We will have improved administrative medical facilities by 2024. This took years to build up, but it is coming to fruition.

We have been training in the Shoalwater Bay training area since 1990, and I want to thank, on our behalf, the government and the people of Australia for these opportunities.

I have tried to give various examples to see where our defence dollars have gone over the years, and the overall picture is one of continuous progress and virtuous cycle, spiralling up even when new threats arise. But it is about the mindset among MINDEF and SAF personnel, the way we approach challenges, the constant emphasis to do things better, safer, not only to protect Singapore, but to improve the lived experience of our soldiers.

Mr Patrick Tay said this is "digital gain", and I agree with him. So, we are using smarter chatbots to answer HR enquiries so that you do not have to go back and forth. Another example is the use of biometrics. For some restricted areas in MINDEF HQ, facial recognition is the norm to control access. It recognises you. If you are a foreign person, it shoots you. Not quite. This is a joke. It just does not let you enter. I am just trying to see if you are still awake. It just recognises you, and if it does not, you cannot go in.

DSTA employees no longer require a camp pass to go to work because of this technology. The 2nd People's Defence Force (2PDF) is in the process of operationalising facial recognition for camp access. The aim is to progressively roll this out to the rest of our camps and bases to be the norm during peacetime. During war and periods of tension (POT), I think there may be issues. The applications of AI, when we apply it, but we have to do it judiciously.

You will see in your handout, the new Central Manpower Base (CMPB) opposite Cashew MRT. My generation is Dempsey Parade Square.