书面答复 · 2026-09-09 · 届国会 15
全球 AI 资本开支扩张对新加坡经济、工资和就业增长的影响
全球 AI 资本开支扩张对新加坡经济、工资和就业增长的影响
议员安迪（Mr Saktiandi Supaat）和谢秉辉（Mr Edward Chia Bing Hui）书面询问贸工部（能源与工业）部长：安迪问政府是否评估过经济增长对全球 AI 资本开支大幅放缓的敏感度，以及本地企业、研发和知识产权获取了多少 AI 增长附加值；谢秉辉问 AI 增长有多少转化为生产力、工资、新增就业和本地企业价值，政府如何监测其是否惠及更广泛经济。陈诗龙（Dr Tan See Leng）的答复与连荣华一题相同：承认 AI 资本开支放缓会拖累相关行业、可能引发金融市场回调，但强调经济多元；引用人力部调查称约三成企业已采用 AI，其中约七成报告生产力提升，并将通过国家人工智能理事会监测。
为什么重要
议员要求量化 AI 增长敏感度和本地价值获取，政府未给数字，只称约三成企业已采用 AI
关键要点
- • 陈诗龙的答复同时回应连荣华、谢秉辉和安迪三名议员的提问，内容与连荣华一题的书面答复相同
- • 全球 AI 资本开支放缓可能拖累电子、精密工程及机械设备批发等 AI 相关行业；全球金融条件收紧和投资者信心下滑是主要下行风险
- • 资讯通信、专业服务、房地产和建筑等行业预计将支撑 2026 年余下时间的国内生产总值增长
- • 人力部调查：约十分之三的企业已采用 AI，其中约十分之七报告员工生产力提升；更多企业重新设计岗位、创造 AI 相关职位，而不是削减人手
- • 贸工部研究：使用 AI 的企业营收和总就业更高，深化 AI 能力的企业收益更大；2026 年财政预算案宣布四大国家 AI 使命
- • 政府将通过国家人工智能理事会统筹国家 AI 工作，确保 AI 驱动的增长惠及更广泛的经济
政府没有给出议员要求的增长敏感度量化评估，也没有提供本地企业、研发和知识产权获取 AI 附加值的具体数据，而是以与另一题相同的答复承认下行风险、强调经济多元，并以人力部调查和贸工部研究说明 AI 目前是在补充而非取代劳动力。
提问议员安迪和谢秉辉关注 AI 增长的脆弱性和分配：新加坡增长对全球 AI 资本开支有多敏感，以及增长是否真正落到本地企业、工资和就业上。
议员要的是量化敏感度和本地价值获取数据，政府只给出定性判断和企业采用率，说明官方尚未公开衡量 AI 增长本地收益的指标体系；把监测职能交给国家人工智能理事会，是目前唯一的制度性承诺。
“我们将通过国家人工智能理事会统筹国家 AI 工作，确保 AI 驱动的增长惠及更广泛的经济。”
参与人员 (3)
完整译文（中文）
Hansard 原始记录 · 2026-09-26
90 号，安迪先生询问贸工部（能源与工业）部长：鉴于 AI 相关活动对新加坡经济增长的贡献日益增加，（a）部门是否评估过新加坡经济增长对全球 AI 资本开支大幅放缓的敏感度；（b）在本地（i）企业、（ii）研发和（iii）知识产权获取 AI 增长附加值方面，有哪些观察。
91 号，谢秉辉先生询问贸工部（能源与工业）部长：鉴于 AI 相关活动对新加坡经济增长的贡献日益增加，（a）部门是否评估过这一增长有多少转化为 AI 相关及邻近行业的生产力提升、工资增长、新增就业和本地企业的价值获取；（b）政府将如何监测 AI 驱动的增长是否惠及更广泛的经济。
陈诗龙博士：我的答复将涵盖连荣华先生在今日议程表中提出的问题，以及谢秉辉先生和安迪先生为之后几次会议提交的问题。如果议员们对答复感到满意，可在本次会议后撤回他们的问题。[请参阅 2026 年 9 月 9 日《国会议事录》第 96 卷第 36 期“口头质询时间结束前未及答复的书面答复”部分中的《AI 带动的经济增长能否持续，以及全球 AI 资产估值大幅回调时的潜在风险》。]
预计人工智能（AI）相关活动将在短期和长期内为新加坡经济增长作出重大贡献。短期内，全球对 AI 基础设施的强劲资本投资，使融入相关供应链的外向型行业受益，包括制造业中的电子和精密工程集群，以及批发贸易业中的机械、设备及供应品领域。
全球 AI 资本开支放缓可能拖累这些 AI 相关行业的增长。全球 AI 资本开支的下行风险包括全球金融条件收紧，这可能使这些投资的融资成本上升。反过来，全球 AI 相关资本支出骤降可能引发投资者信心丧失，导致全球金融市场大幅回调，并对全球经济活动产生负面外溢效应。
在密切关注 AI 相关风险的同时，我们希望向议员们保证，新加坡经济高度多元化。除了前面提到的 AI 相关行业，资讯通信、专业服务、房地产和建筑等其他行业，预计也将支撑 2026 年余下时间的国内生产总值增长。
为了让 AI 推动我们的长期经济增长，我们正在支持处于不同准备阶段的企业加大 AI 采用、推进 AI 驱动的转型，以提升生产力和创新。我们也在支持员工培养与 AI 协作的技能和信心，承担重新设计的岗位，并转向新的、更高价值的机会。
我们已看到初步进展的迹象。人力部近期一项调查发现，约十分之三的企业已采用 AI，其中约十分之七报告员工生产力有所提升（注 1）。AI 也在补充而非取代劳动力：更多企业重新设计现有岗位、创造新的 AI 相关职位，而不是削减人手。这与贸工部近期的一项研究结果一致：使用 AI 的企业营收和总就业人数更高，而深化 AI 能力的企业收益更大（注 2）。
除了在全经济范围推动 AI 采用，我们也在建设研究、工程和商业化能力。正如 2026 年财政预算案所宣布，我们将在先进制造、金融服务、互联互通和医疗领域推出国家 AI 使命。我们将与业界和研究伙伴合作，把 AI 研究转化为可部署的应用，大规模推动 AI 赋能的转型，并创建新业务。与此同时，Google DeepMind 和 OpenAI 等领先 AI 公司也已在新加坡设立研究实验室，把实质性的研究和工程工作扎根于此。这些进一步加强了我们的本地研究生态，为新加坡人创造高质量工作，并建立在我们对 AI 算力和人才的更广泛投资之上。
政府将继续监测 AI 对我国经济的影响，包括企业层面的 AI 采用情况及其对企业表现的影响。我们将通过国家人工智能理事会统筹国家 AI 工作，确保 AI 驱动的增长惠及更广泛的经济。
英文原文
SPRS Hansard 原始记录 · 抓取日期：2026-09-26
90 Mr Saktiandi Supaat asked the Minister for Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) given the growing contribution of AI-related activity to Singapore's economic growth (a) whether the Ministry has assessed Singapore's growth sensitivity to a material slowdown in global AI capital expenditure; and (b) what observations have been made on the capturing of value-added AI growth by local (i) enterprises (ii) research and development and (iii) intellectual property.
91 Mr Edward Chia Bing Hui asked the Minister for Trade and Industry (Energy and Industry) given the growing contribution of AI-related activity to Singapore’s economic growth (a) whether the Ministry has assessed how much of this growth has translated into productivity gains, wage growth, new job creation and value capture by local enterprises in AI-related and adjacent sectors; and (b) how the Government will monitor whether AI-driven growth benefits the wider economy.
Dr Tan See Leng : My response will cover the question raised by Mr Liang Eng Hwa in today's Order Paper, as well as questions by Mr Edward Chia Bing Hui and Mr Saktiandi Supaat for subsequent sittings. If the Members are satisfied with the response, they may wish to withdraw their questions after this session. [ Please refer to " Sustainability of AI-led Economic Growth and Potential Risks In Event of Major Correction in Global AI Asset Valuations ", Official Report, 9 September 2026, Vol 96, Issue 36, Written Answers to Questions for Oral Answer not Answered by End of Question Time section. ]
Artificial intelligence (AI)-related activity is expected to contribute significantly to Singapore's economic growth in the near and longer term. In the near term, strong global capital investment in AI infrastructure has benefited outward-oriented sectors that are plugged into the related supply chains. These include the electronics and precision engineering clusters of the manufacturing sector, as well as the machinery, equipment and supplies segment of the wholesale trade sector.
A slowdown in global AI capital expenditure could weigh on growth in these AI-linked sectors. Downside risks to global AI capital expenditure include tighter financial conditions globally, which could make financing more costly for these investments. In turn, a sudden fall in global AI-related capital spending could trigger a loss of investor confidence, which could result in sharp corrections in global financial markets, with negative spillovers on global economic activity.
Even as we keep a close watch on the AI-related risks, we would like to assure Members that Singapore's economy is well diversified. Apart from the AI-linked sectors mentioned earlier, other sectors, such as information and communications, professional services, real estate and construction, are also expected to support gross domestic product growth for the rest of 2026.
For AI to propel our longer-term economic growth, we are supporting our enterprises, which are at different stages of readiness, to increase AI adoption and undertake AI-driven transformation to raise productivity and innovation. We are also supporting our workers to build the skills and confidence to work with AI, take on redesigned roles and move into new and higher-value opportunities.
We have observed early signs of progress. A recent Ministry of Manpower's survey found that around three in 10 firms had adopted AI. Of these, about seven in 10 reported improvements in worker productivity 1 . AI is also complementing rather than replacing labour, with more firms redesigning existing roles and creating new AI-related jobs, rather than reducing headcount. This is consistent with a recent Ministry of Trade and Industry's study, which found that firms using AI saw higher revenue and total employment, with those that deepened their AI capabilities seeing even higher gains 2 .
Beyond economy-wide AI adoption, we are building up our research, engineering and commercialisation capabilities. As announced at Budget 2026, we are launching National AI Missions in Advanced Manufacturing, Financial Services, Connectivity and Healthcare. We will work with industry and research partners to translate the AI research into deployable applications, drive AI-enabled transformation at scale and build new businesses. Alongside this, leading AI companies, including Google DeepMind and OpenAI, have also set up research labs in Singapore to anchor substantive research and engineering work here. These further strengthen our local research ecosystem, create high-quality jobs for Singaporeans and build on our broader investments in AI compute and talent.
The Government will continue to monitor the impact of AI on our economy, including enterprise-level AI adoption and its effects on firm performance. Through the National AI Council, we will coordinate our national AI efforts and ensure that AI-driven growth benefits the wider economy.