預算辯論 · 2024-02-28 · 屆國會 14
國防預算與安全趨勢質詢
議員質詢國防部關於全球及區域安全趨勢的監測情況，特別關注俄烏戰爭及中東衝突對新加坡安全的影響。政府回應強調國際秩序動盪、網路戰與資訊戰的挑戰，表明將持續關注並調整國防策略以應對複雜多變的安全環境。核心爭議點在於如何平衡預算分配與應對新興安全威脅。
關鍵要點
- • 國際法與安全秩序
- • 非國家行為體威脅
- • 網路與資訊戰挑戰
強化國防應對複雜安全環境
關注預算合理性與安全威脅
加強網路戰與資訊戰防禦
“The world is likely be more volatile and unpredictable in the coming year.”
參與人員 (12)
完整譯文（中文）
Hansard 原始記錄 · 2026-05-02
主席：J項負責人，Vikram Nair先生。
安全趨勢
Vikram Nair先生（實龍崗）：主席，我請求動議，“將預算中J項的總撥款減少100元”。
先生，我們生活在一個危險的世界。第二次世界大戰結束後，世界大國齊聚一堂，建立了國際關係的合作框架。這包括成立聯合國和佈雷頓森林體系機構——即世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織。
聯合國憲章確立了禁止使用武力的原則——除非是自衛。這一規則通常被視為國際法中的強行法（jus cogens）——即不可違反的國際法規範。
在此背景下，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭——違反了這一規則——直接挑戰了國際法的權威。俄羅斯是聯合國安全理事會成員，該機構本應領導聯合國集體行動以維護國際法。
當國際法規則受到威脅或崩潰時，像我們這樣的小國尤其脆弱。
非國家行為體的力量也在增強，且可能帶來不穩定因素。自十月以來，以色列與哈馬斯衝突急劇升級，造成慘重生命損失。這場衝突發生在以色列（有人認為是加沙的佔領者）與哈馬斯之間，後者是一個事實控制該地區的非國家行為體。暴力已蔓延至加沙地帶以外，波及黎巴嫩和紅海，威脅中東地區穩定。
未來一年，世界可能更加動盪和不可預測。作為一個小國，新加坡對外部安全環境的變化極為敏感——和平秩序對新加坡的成功至關重要。
國防部（MINDEF）能否提供關於MINDEF和新加坡武裝部隊（SAF）密切關注的主要全球及區域趨勢的最新情況，以及這些趨勢將如何影響MINDEF和SAF？
[(程式文本) 提出問題。 (程式文本)]
國防部的計劃與優先事項
Alex Yam先生（馬西嶺-裕廊西）：主席，近年來，我們目睹了席捲全球的變革之風。國際秩序的支柱在紛爭和衝突的重壓下動搖和削弱，給我們所有人投下了不確定的陰影。
讓我們暫時反思一個令人警醒的現實：俄烏戰爭已進入第三年。它超越了單純的領土戰場，蔓延至網路戰和虛假資訊領域，塑造著各地的認知和敘事。烏克蘭堅韌的防禦，得益於最初的國際團結——儘管現在比戰爭初期更脆弱——彰顯了烏克蘭人民不屈的精神。然而，遺憾的是，前景依然模糊，缺乏這場曠日持久衝突的明確終結。
當世界目光聚焦歐洲時，中東另一場衝突正在激烈進行，古老的沙漠見證著一場現代悲劇的展開。以色列與哈馬斯的衝突深刻提醒我們，未解決的怨恨和根深蒂固的敵意不僅困擾該地區數十年，甚至數百年、數千年。持久和平的希望如今似乎被歷史恩怨擊碎，世界在根深蒂固的分裂面前苦苦尋求解決方案——不僅遠離我們海岸，也存在於我們自身邊界和社群之間。
在這場衝突的熔爐中，我們見證了戰爭形態的演變，傳統的常規與非常規戰術界限變得模糊。戰術創新催生了新型武器，混合工具成為不斷變化戰場上破壞的先鋒。
在這場席捲全球的混亂與動盪中，我們不能忽視其對我們所有人的影響——尤其是新加坡。儘管國土狹小，新加坡是動盪海洋中的穩定燈塔，我們有責任保持警惕、適應和堅定，捍衛主權。
在航行這片險惡水域時，讓我們堅定抵禦逆境的浪潮——堅信團結一致，我們能克服最大的挑戰。
最後，我呼籲國防部長闡明MINDEF和SAF如何調整計劃和優先事項，以應對不斷演變的威脅，以及我們如何共同規劃一個以合作與和平為特徵的未來。
國防開支
Chong Kee Hiong先生（碧山-大巴窯）：主席，遺憾的是，世界正經歷更多政治動盪和軍事衝突。近年來我們目睹了兩場重大沖突，儘管國際社會多次嘗試緩和，但無減緩跡象。美中關係升溫更添全球憂慮。
鑑於這些紛爭的影響和潛在暗流，許多政府增加了國防開支，有些甚至大舉採購以填補能力缺口。
新加坡一直將國防置於優先位置。自獨立以來，這一直是不可談判的。儘管存在權衡和機會成本，政府在公民的信任和支援下，穩步投資國防，深知自力更生的重要性。
基於此，我想請教國防部長關於我們的國防開支。今年的國防預算預測如何？部委的優先事項是什麼？採購和維護過程中面臨的主要問題或挑戰有哪些？部委如何克服這些限制？
武裝部隊轉型計劃
Kwek Hian Chuan Henry先生（新加坡芽籠）：主席，正如我的議員同事所言，俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭已逾兩年。隨著烏克蘭傳統武器系統和彈藥日益短缺，其軍隊不得不即興部署低成本無人機，並取得顯著成效。
本月初，烏克蘭總統宣佈成立專門負責無人機的武裝力量分支。這並非首次在衝突中大量部署無人機，但無人機的規模部署已導致戰場作戰方式發生重大變化。
事實上，前所未有的數量使一些人稱之為世界首場無人機戰爭。除了電子戰無人機群，我們還看到網路戰不僅針對民用基礎設施，還在以色列-哈馬斯衝突中實現戰場情報優勢。
在紅海危機中，胡塞武裝利用民用技術擾亂國際貿易流，並通過反坦克和防空導彈實施非對稱戰爭。未來幾年，人工智慧和定向能武器將進一步塑造戰爭形態。
在此背景下，MINDEF能否分享SAF下一代轉型計劃的進展？隨著技術迅速改變戰爭面貌，MINDEF如何確保SAF能夠及時且經濟地應對不斷演變的安全威脅？
晚上7點
武裝部隊採購
Don Wee先生（蔡厝港）：主席，去年國防預算辯論中，國防部長黃永宏博士對議會表示，“我們絕不能忘記國防是一個長期事業。”他進一步說明，SAF的主要系統和平臺從構想到建造再到整合入作戰部隊，通常需要10至15年，前提是一切順利。
我很高興新加坡一直以長遠眼光看待國防。我們不能等到衝突迫近才準備和防禦。
自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來，全球各國政府紛紛加快建造和採購新武器，因為戰爭極大消耗了庫存。然而，即使增加國防開支，國家也可能需要數年才能收穫投資成果。這是不持續投資國防的遺憾後果。
去年三月，線上刊物《國防新聞》報道，義大利考慮快速採購坦克和步兵戰車，作為長期專案成形前的填補措施。烏克蘭戰爭凸顯了地面作戰能力的重要性，而義大利的坦克和步兵戰車庫存老化且減少。
我希望新加坡能吸取其他國家的慘痛教訓。我們不能等到局勢升溫才優先投資國防。因此，MINDEF此前已告知議會，SAF將在未來十年增加更多平臺和能力。
隨著衝突性質演變，新加坡必須有效防禦日益複雜的常規和非常規威脅。特別是烏克蘭戰爭顯示，國家維持高階常規軍事能力的重要性。MINDEF能否提供SAF採購和能力發展計劃的最新進展？
F-35B戰鬥機採購
Poh Li San女士（實龍崗）：主席，MINDEF此前宣佈計劃採購F-35B戰鬥機。能否提供該採購的最新情況？作為一個無戰略縱深的小國，新加坡必須擁有有效軍力以威懾潛在侵略。我們深知必須現代化軍隊，確保SAF能保護新加坡。
過去幾年，MINDEF通過採購先進戰鬥機和其他系統，持續更新共和國空軍（RSAF），這些系統在國家防禦能力中發揮關鍵作用。
2019年3月，MINDEF宣佈將採購四架F-35B戰機，計劃逐步用F-35替換RSAF老化的F-16機隊。此後，MINDEF宣佈將額外採購八架，總計十二架。國防部長也表示，RSAF將於2026年接收首批四架戰機。
然而，近年來全球供應鏈面臨諸多挑戰，影響了部分軍事平臺的交付時間表。MINDEF能否提供最新進展？
無人技術
Vikram Nair先生：主席，鑑於新加坡出生率下降，我們預計全職國服役兵和預備役國服役兵人數將逐年減少。SAF需要以更少的人力完成更多工。顯然，新技術有助於組織最佳化和簡化運作。
尤其是無人機和其他無人技術能緩解人力緊張，我瞭解到MINDEF在這方面已取得顯著進展。無人技術也增強了軍隊的能力優勢。機械化戰爭減少了士兵暴露於危險的需要，同時具備精準打擊能力，減少人為弱點和脆弱性。因此，我在國防預算辯論中經常詢問該領域的最新進展。
我欣慰地看到，MINDEF通常每年報告該領域令人印象深刻的進展。去年國防預算辯論中，國防部長強調，當大規模使用時，空中、陸地和海上的無人平臺將成為未來的遊戲規則改變者。我們已見證無人機在烏克蘭和中東衝突中的應用例項。
鑑於無人和自主技術在軍事領域的未來作用，SAF利用和整合這些技術比以往任何時候都更為重要。國防部長還表示，將在作戰單位引入更多無人空中和地面車輛，海軍將轉向半數艦艇無人化的力量結構。
但另一方面，自動化技術也帶來更大風險，因為入門門檻和成本相對較低。這可能為敵人，包括非國家行為體，利用這些技術威脅新加坡安全提供機會。
MINDEF能否提供SAF如何整合無人技術以增強能力，以及如何應對這些技術潛在威脅的最新情況？
不斷演變的軍事威脅
Desmond Choo先生（淡濱尼）：主席，今年一月，胡塞武裝發射了美聯社報道的“最大規模無人機和導彈襲擊”，目標是紅海航運。幾天前，美國中央司令部稱首次觀察到胡塞武裝使用水下無人機攻擊船隻。
關於無人機作為恐怖主義戰術和未來戰爭中日益重要角色的討論日益增多。許多無人機成本較低，可大規模部署，對安全構成重大威脅。胡塞武裝在紅海使用的一次性攻擊無人機估計成本約為2000美元。
2023年10月7日，哈馬斯使用商用四旋翼無人機攜帶爆炸物，破壞以色列軍事基礎設施。在俄烏戰爭中，無人機改變了傳統戰爭的複雜性。攻擊方式因攻擊型和自殺式無人機而改變。有報道稱商用無人機被改裝攜帶爆炸物攻擊常規軍隊。此外，無人機在偵察和引導炮火方面的使用也日益增多。
即使是最先進的軍隊仍在努力應對這些威脅和新發展。英國廣播公司（BBC）報道，美國海軍陸戰隊為應對胡塞無人機攻擊，改裝其戰鬥機執行防空任務。
美國的攔截行動效果顯著，但執行這些任務的人員風險巨大，且每次任務成本高昂。如果對手大規模發動此類攻擊，現有軍事應對將難以為繼。
我們甚至尚未探討如何成功防禦無人機群攻擊，尤其是未來可能完全自主的無人機群。大量無人機群可能壓倒傳統防禦系統。這引發了當前防空能力是否足夠的問題。
我描述的威脅只是我們目前所知之一。但不法分子持續尋找更具創造性和成本效益的方式，利用新技術或商用雙用途平臺規避和削弱傳統軍事防禦。
MINDEF/SAF如何應對無人機挑戰？鑑於安全環境快速變化，MINDEF/SAF採取了哪些措施防範可能破壞我們安全的新興和演變技術及戰術？MINDEF如何培訓人員應對不斷變化的威脅？
數字領域的威脅
Shawn Huang Wei Zhong先生（裕廊）：主席，戰爭性質正在演變，戰鬥不再侷限於傳統的海、空、陸物理領域，而是在數字領域展開。通過滲透網路、破壞政府或民用基礎設施、擾亂日常運作，可以造成更大破壞。與傳統戰爭類似，這類攻擊通過削弱政府信任、破壞社會凝聚力和削弱軍事工業能力來攻擊國家。
我們已見證此策略的實施，例如以色列網站和應用遭駭客攻擊，以及自以色列-哈馬斯衝突開始以來加沙地帶多次斷網。近在咫尺的例子包括2018年SingHealth資料洩露事件、2016年星和寬頻遭受分散式拒絕服務（DDoS）攻擊，以及2017年國防部系統遭網路攻擊。
鑑於新加坡對此類攻擊的脆弱性，國防部長能否談談MINDEF/SAF如何應對數字領域的威脅，包括數字與情報服務（DIS）採取的防護措施？
數字與情報服務最新情況
Don Wee先生：主席，在拉賈拉特南國際研究學院發表的一篇評論中，助理教授Michael Raska寫道，未來十年戰略優勢的主要來源，將在於現代軍事組織能否在所有作戰和戰爭層面，充分整合人工智慧、網路力量、資料科學，以及認知科學和機器人技術的創新。
為了讓新加坡武裝部隊（SAF）保持優勢，應不斷發展以利用新的數字技術。SAF還應持續制定應對措施，以防禦新威脅。
鑑於這些迅速發展的情況，我認為SAF數字與資訊服務部（DIS）在一年多前的成立非常及時。要在各級作戰行動中，當然也包括三軍之間，全面整合各種數字和網路能力與資產，並讓服役人員積累作戰經驗，可能需要多年時間。國防部正在採取正確且必要的措施。
國防部能否提供DIS的最新進展？已採取了哪些步驟來提升其能力？DIS如何與新加坡其他在數字領域運作的機構協作，以增強我們的安全？
提升SAF訓練與戰備
朱卡江選區的朱卡納因·阿卜杜勒·拉希姆先生：主席，許多SAF現役軍人與國民服役軍人有機會到海外訓練，這使他們能夠獲得實地經驗，並在作戰環境中應用技能和知識。鑑於新加坡空間有限，這對於某些型別的訓練尤為關鍵，因為這些訓練在本地難以或無法進行。
隨著全球局勢日益不確定，我們不能假設總能維持現有的海外訓練場地訪問許可權。因此，探索不同方式確保我們的國民服役軍人訓練充分並保持作戰準備狀態非常重要。
國防部能否提供關於改善本地及海外訓練的最新情況？特別是，我們如何利用技術進步最大化SAF訓練的價值和效率？SAF利用了哪些機會，為服役人員提供在衝突區或海外人道任務中的實戰經驗？
利用技術改進流程
先鋒選區的鄭德源先生：主席，我的發言主題是利用技術改進流程。雖然疫情最嚴重的時期可能已過去，但它影響了我們的生活和工作方式，推動我們接受新的工作模式，特別是數字化和技術應用。
從雲技術到人工智慧工具，再到機器人輔助，我們都看到這些技術如何改變現代職場。隨著世界數字化程度加深，對更高生產力和效率的期望也會隨之增加。我們需要抓住機會，鞏固數字化成果，提供更好且更快速的服務。
國防部和SAF自數十年前起就擁抱數字化，現代化了多代部隊。我想了解國防部和SAF如何利用技術，包括生成式人工智慧（GenAI），改善服役人員的日常體驗並提升他們的整體能力？
保護我們的水下利益
阿裕尼選區的林瑞蓮女士：主席，作為海洋國家，新加坡依賴暢通無阻的海上交通線和空中航線，將貨物和人員運送進出我們的海岸。若這些連線被中斷，代價將非常高昂。
確實，持續投資我們的空軍和海軍，以及與區域和國際夥伴合作的努力，為新加坡提供了額外的保障。
晚上7點15分
我們國家在水下的利益同樣重要。海底電纜傳輸著從金融市場到設計藍圖及海外訂單的各種資料，連線著中東、南亞與我們所在的東南亞和東北亞。
我瞭解到新加坡甚至計劃增加海底電纜登陸點數量，也計劃通過海底電纜向新加坡供電。此外，還有海底管道輸送天然氣，包括來自印度尼西亞西納圖納的管道。我們知道這些海底資產在危機時可能成為攻擊或破壞的目標，和平時期也可能遭受意外損壞。
這從2022年北溪2號爆炸事件，以及去年波羅的海和臺灣與馬祖之間海底電纜被切斷事件中可見一斑。隨著美中競爭加劇及海上交通增長，亞洲及南中國海的緊張局勢加劇，這些風險更加真實。國防部長能否向新加坡人保證，我們有能力獨立或與夥伴合作保護和修復這些海底資產？有哪些努力在增強這方面的能力？
主席：亞歷克斯·嚴先生，請將您的兩段發言合併。
跨國威脅
馬西嶺-裕廊西選區的亞歷克斯·嚴先生：主席，隨著世界快速變化，我們面臨的威脅性質也在演變。我們現在面對越來越多的非傳統安全挑戰。恐怖主義、網路攻擊和虛假資訊傳播的頻率和影響都在上升。
就在去年十月，哈馬斯策劃了一起毀滅性的恐怖襲擊，襲擊了以色列，造成無辜人員死亡。這一惡劣行為引發了以色列與哈馬斯之間的殘酷衝突。儘管以色列有自衛權，但其不成比例的武力和暴力導致數千人喪生，數萬人流離失所。
這場衝突的影響遠超其直接戰場。在東南亞，持續的以色列-哈馬斯對抗加劇了激進化風險，不僅威脅新加坡，也威脅我們的鄰國。
此外，網路攻擊和虛假資訊傳播已成為敵對勢力推進其議程的首選手段。這些攻擊隱蔽、廣泛且難以追蹤，能對我們的關鍵基礎設施造成嚴重破壞，削弱公眾信任。鑑於新加坡高度依賴數字技術，我們必須保持警惕。
東盟防長會議網路安全與資訊中心
以勒索軟體為例，這在新加坡仍是嚴重問題。勒索軟體團伙日益成熟，迅速竊取資料，並利用定製威脅迫使受害者支付贖金。
顯然，這些挑戰無法由單一國家獨自應對。合作與協調至關重要。因此，我渴望瞭解國防部為應對這些跨國威脅所採取的策略和舉措。
為應對這些挑戰，新加坡於2021年主動成立了東盟防長會議網路安全與資訊卓越中心（ADMM ACICE）。此舉正值社會數字化加速，網路攻擊及虛假資訊日益普遍。我很高興ACICE的實體中心於去年7月18日正式啟用。
這一舉措至關重要，因為網路和資訊威脅多面且不斷演變。顯然，與其他東盟成員國及國際夥伴合作不可或缺。
因此，我也希望國防部長介紹ACICE的進展及未來計劃。ACICE如何在現有基礎上加強網路安全和打擊虛假資訊？
主席：黃永宏部長。
國防部長（黃永宏博士）：主席，維克拉姆·奈爾先生開頭指出我們的世界變得更加危險。隨後多位議員也談及周邊事件。我相信無論在議會內外，都無需質疑世界確實變得更危險。
就在上週2月24日，是另一個臭名昭著的日子。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭已進入第三年。正如多位議員所指出，以色列-哈馬斯衝突有蔓延中東的風險，美中之間存在事實上的貿易戰。
我們都擔心美中可能因臺灣發生衝突。如果發生，那將是亞洲長期的陰霾。
這一區域何時遭遇如此多麻煩？如果你記得莎士比亞的詩句：“雙倍的勞苦與煩惱；火焰燃燒，鍋爐沸騰。”
上一次該地區經歷類似動盪和潛在危險，可能是1980年代的中越衝突，持續從1979年到1991年。新加坡的先鋒一代經歷了那些動盪危險的年代，不僅如此，長達60年。1940年代的日本佔領、朝鮮戰爭、越南戰爭、對抗行動。60年。李光耀先生曾說，他因政治動盪不得不唱四個國歌，歷時60年。這些經歷鍛造了1920和1930年代出生的先鋒一代。
我們獨立後首要任務是組建新加坡武裝部隊。這是本能反應。
我這一代人，以及本議會中的一些人，出生於1950和1960年代，即獨立一代。我們很幸運。許多家庭起初貧窮，但隨著新加坡繁榮，我們也隨之繁榮。那是開放貿易和自由化的黃金時代，冷戰於1991年結束，全球經濟騰飛，生活水平持續提升至今。
因此，新加坡的人均國內生產總值（GDP）是亞洲最高。我們何時超過日本，亞洲第二高？2007年。
美元強勢，海外旅行變得更便宜。我仍記得小時候，一英鎊超過7新元。那時炸魚薯條很貴。
日本物價高昂。現在，大批新加坡人去日本，價格已不算貴。
先鋒一代經歷了60年的對抗。獨立一代經歷了30年的相對和平。我們一直認為這是常態。究竟哪種是常態——先鋒一代經歷的，還是獨立一代經歷的？
如果五年前問我，我會說現今一代——被統稱為X世代、千禧一代、Z世代及其他字母世代——會像獨立一代一樣幸運。因為儘管英國脫歐，歐盟依然存在——記得歐盟成立於1993年。
那時，俄羅斯與歐洲經濟依賴日益加深，甚至在能源供應上。烏克蘭入侵前，俄羅斯供應德國55%的天然氣。你不會在不相信和平的情況下購買如此比例的天然氣。
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭至少對歐洲一代人的一體化造成致命打擊。更糟的是，未來不和與衝突的種子已播下。正如歐盟外交與安全政策高階代表何塞普·博雷利去年在香格里拉對話會上所說：“這場戰爭正在改變歐洲的角色。歐洲曾是和平的專案和象徵。但現在我們面臨一個戰爭無處不在的世界，這些戰火離我們家門很近。”
在中東，簽署的亞伯拉罕協議曾帶來該地區加速和平與發展的希望。亞伯拉罕協議後的時代精神，是避免衝突、尋找共同利益，以促進經濟發展。這是鄧小平的格言：“致富光榮”，而非戰爭。為此，甚至沙烏地阿拉伯的穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼改變了對葉門胡塞武裝的立場，後者曾遭其致命打擊。因此，在這場衝突中，角色發生逆轉。美國打擊胡塞武裝，沙特則表示願意和平。2023年10月7日哈馬斯的襲擊顛覆、延遲甚至摧毀了中東的這些願景。
美中之間的貿易戰已開始。美國方面計劃將其限制在特定領域，尤其是涉及國家安全的高階技術。理論上這似乎可行，美國稱之為“小院子，高圍牆”。但實際上更難，因為以國家安全名義，院子可能會變大。目前，美國國會有法案擬排除中國生物製藥製造業，理由是可能生產削弱國家安全的產品。明天可能是電動汽車。
當然還有資本，這是最具流動性的資產。如果某國或公司在中國投資鉅額資金，會被視為助長潛在對手嗎？如果是，會採取何種懲罰措施或限制？
在這個互聯世界，國家安全設立的邊界會否使世界倒退至聯盟和貿易集團時代，如第一次和第二次世界大戰及冷戰前？
我們正親眼目睹這一切。這是這一代人的特權。我們看到戲劇上演：整個世界都是舞臺。無論結果如何，這些情景需要一兩十年才能成真。
兩週前，我參加了第60屆慕尼黑安全會議。他們將本屆會議命名為“雙輸？”因為無論他們分析何種情況，雙方都輸，世界也輸。
這是我第12次參加慕尼黑安全會議。2014年，我參加了第50屆會議。那次有特別環節，我永遠不會忘記。臺上有亨利·基辛格、赫爾穆特·施密特、前法國總統瓦萊裡·吉斯卡爾·德斯坦。三位先生均已去世。那是第50屆會議。施密特和基辛格曾出席1963年首屆會議。那是一個特殊論壇，經歷了50年和平。氣氛充滿慶祝。吉斯卡爾·德斯坦總統說，歐洲已消除戰爭概念。那僅僅是十年前。
所有這些夢想已被摧毀。我向議會保證，意外和不可預見的後果將接踵而至，有些相關，有些完全出乎意料。當地緣政治的環境溫度升高，火花和火災將從多個源頭爆發。
因此，我已改變對新加坡及其他地方當代一代的評估。未來十年內區域甚至全球衝突的風險不再為零。我不是輕率作出此評估。
具體機率是多少？這無益於生產力。我們不是諾查丹瑪斯，無法預測。最重要的問題，我認為，是正如維克拉姆·奈爾、亞歷克斯·嚴等議員所說——作為一個小國，新加坡及新加坡人能做些什麼，切實準備應對可能的擾亂和意外後果？因為擾亂和有意後果必然存在，我們可以確定。如何應對，我們尚不確定。
晚上7點30分
我記得美國國防部長蓋茨，我常引用他的話。他在西點軍校畢業典禮上說，過去十年，美國國防部預測衝突發生地點的準確率為零。即使擁有情報收集和預測的所有機制，美國政府也從未預測準確。因此，我們不能假裝知道未來，但必須準備。那麼，我們如何為新加坡準備這不確定的未來？
首先，我認為應認識到新加坡人擁有比先鋒代和獨立代更多的保護物件和資源。部分新加坡人可能記得1990年伊拉克入侵科威特。入侵的理由之一是伊拉克指控科威特偷油——有一塊名為阿爾魯邁拉油田的油田跨越兩國邊界。伊拉克稱：“你們從你們一側抽油，卻從我這邊偷油。”地理上可能，但這是指控。富裕且資源豐富的小國科威特是誘人的目標。富裕且小的新加坡若無強大防禦，也可能成為誘人目標。
在那次入侵中，美國救援科威特，領導42國聯軍進行空地戰爭。SAF提供傷員支援，派遣了30人醫療隊赴該地區。
但我要明確指出，如果類似事件發生在新加坡，政府、國防部和SAF不會依賴其他國家來救援。若新加坡人不願或不能保衛新加坡，就沒有後盾。這是簡單的事實。強大的SAF是對侵略的威懾，防止冒險行為。
聽議員們發言令人欣慰，因為無論政治立場如何，大家都明白我們必須自力更生。我感謝議會成員每年支援國防部預算。
我們確實持續投入寶貴資金於國防，正如部分議員所言。這些資金本可用於其他事業，但我們知道沒有安全就無進步。新加坡在最新全球和平指數中排名第六。我不知道也不想知道若無必要投資建設強大SAF，我們的排名會如何。我認為那實驗代價太大。
鍾基雄先生要求提供今年及未來幾年的國防開支詳情。讓我來說明。
在即將到來的財政年度，國防部預計開支約為202億新元，比去年（2023財年）增長2.5%。如果與2022年相比，增幅更大，但那是因為我們在趕進度——疫情期間被打斷的專案和活動。
儘管過去幾年國防開支名義上有所增加，但其佔GDP的比例一直在下降，主要原因是新加坡的GDP增長速度快於國防開支。這是一個良好的結果。
主席先生，若獲允許，我已請書記員分發講義。
主席：請繼續。[講義已分發給尊敬的議員們。]
黃永宏博士：謝謝。這些講義內容豐富，大家在聆聽時可以慢慢瀏覽。你們也可以通過SG PARL MP手機應用程式獲取。
首先是我們的GDP。如議員們所見，二十年前，我們的國防開支佔GDP的5%。順便說一句，每次預算公佈時，我都會拿出來比較資料。中東國家的平均國防開支約佔GDP的4%。歐洲當然正經歷巨大動盪，他們的開支甚至不到2%。
但二十年前，我們的國防開支佔GDP的5%。現在降至約3%，這是份額減少了40%。
我們開支比例下降，可能是因為政府總開支保持不變或減少。但政府總開支佔GDP的比例實際上是增加的，從2000年代初的平均16%升至近年的平均18%。我想如果你聽過黃總理的講話，會知道我們的經濟和收入流不會像以前那樣高，這有結構性原因。我認為達到這個水平是好的。你們中有人，包括鍾基雄先生，問過我們的未來國防開支，我會說未來十年我們的開支大致會維持在3%左右，上下浮動，但有一個重要前提：除非發生衝突和戰爭。
亞歷克斯·嚴先生、郭振輝先生和黃俊偉先生問：“整體情況是這樣，但這些開支都花到哪裡了？你們如何準備武裝部隊？”這些都是很好的問題。
讓我澄清，國防預算佔GDP比例下降，並非因為武裝部隊削減了保衛新加坡所必需的開支。我們的國防能力從未受損，也不是因為人力減少。維克拉姆先生提到我們的國民服役人數會減少，我必須告訴他，已經減少了。上一次遇到龍年，我們都期待好訊息。如今我們的總生育率是0.97。我們都期待一個“迷你龍年”。自1988年以來，我們沒有真正的龍年。那是最後一個真正的龍年。之後的每個龍年都是迷你龍年。我希望今年我們會被證明錯了，但這交給其他部門去處理。
人數減少是因為，正如歷任國防部長和議員所說，我們持續保持國防開支，這是長期建設強大軍隊最有效和高效的方式。因此，今天我們正收穫過去20年穩步投入的成果。如果我們繼續明智投資，未來將收穫更多。
如果你今天讀報紙，丹麥的國防部長或首相說：“我們應該削減福利以增加國防開支。”我們絕不想處於那種境地。我們實際上想兩者兼顧。穩定的長期國防開支使平臺和能力能在必要時間內成熟，增強協同效應並提高效率。
讓我用實際例子說明。Poh Li San女士問我們的F-35戰機。這是一個很好的起點，說明我的意思。F-35投入使用後，將使新加坡空軍躋身頂級行列。第六代戰機正在研發，但還需時間。F-35投入使用時，我們將進入頂級行列。
我們何時開始關注F-35專案？你可能以為很簡單，付錢就能買到。但我們處境非常不同。我們是新加坡，人口550萬，開始評估F-35是在2004年，20年前。最初作為安全合作參與者，隨後試探性訂購了4架用於評估。
但正如Poh Li San女士所說，事態發展超出了預期。自那時起，F-35已被其他空軍用於實戰任務，這是任何戰鬥平臺最終的考驗。例如，美國和英國的F-35成功打擊了中東的ISIS。最近，美國用F-35定位並識別了烏克蘭境內俄羅斯部隊的地對空導彈陣地，並將資訊分享給北約國家。
迄今為止，全球已有超過900架F-35參與作戰。我們開始評估時，數量遠不及現在。其戰場成功促使更多國家——瑞士、德國加入F-35專案。韓國、日本、英國等國追加訂單。有人問是否存在供應鏈中斷？F-35沒有，反而訂單更多，因為全球認可F-35是經過驗證的第五代戰鬥機，具備先進的感知和打擊能力。
全球約有2500架F-35，訂單充足。因此價格更具競爭力。實際上，如果你今天訂購F-35，價格與F-15EX相當。這就是競爭力所在。
我們將利用這一機會視窗加快F-35專案。正如Poh Li San女士所說，我們已訂購4架加8架F-35B。這次，我們訂購8架F-35A，補充現有的12架F-35B。
新加坡空軍能冷靜、理智地做出這些決定，是因為多年來穩定的國防開支。這也使我們能夠對F-16C、D和D+進行中期升級，F-35將取代它們。升級後的F-16將從2030年代中期開始逐步退役。
我們將在2026年接收4架四年前訂購的F-35B，進度似乎正常。隨後8架F-35B將在2028年交付。今天宣佈的F-35A型號，如果議會批准預算，將於2030年左右抵達。
為了這次機會採購，我們不得不優先考慮，推遲其他專案，但經過計算，我們認為現在是訂購F-35A的最佳時機。為什麼？因為F-35A設計續航更長，載荷能力更大，能補充短距起飛和垂直降落的F-35B。F-35A體積更大，航程更遠，提供更多作戰靈活性。
總之，F-16退役後，新加坡空軍將操作F-35A、F-35B和F15SG，躋身頂級行列，具備執行保衛新加坡空域所需的全部任務能力。這將是一支強大的空軍，保護我們的天空。
海軍方面，我們的第一艘無敵級潛艇去年返回新加坡。你們可能沒注意到，如果注意到了，那它就沒發揮作用。潛艇投資巨大，顯然我不能像飛機那樣用它們參加國慶閱兵。但請放心，我們的潛艇將默默無聲地保護周邊水域。
今年晚些時候，我們將為其服役，並在基爾下水第四艘也是最後一艘潛艇。這個潛艇專案是為海軍量身定製的——這是我們首次定製潛艇。此前我們訂購的是二手潛艇，經過改裝。當然，這是第一次從零開始與防務供應商合作，明確需求。我們何時開始？2000年，20年前。
國防是長期事業。正如包括黃俊偉先生在內的議員指出，你不能臨時決定要有防禦。澤連斯基總統最近親自出席慕尼黑安全會議，他讓聽眾感到寒意，他說：“歐洲國家，你們還沒準備好應對入侵！”烏克蘭儘管做了準備，仍未準備好。
晚上7點45分
接下來幾天，大家反覆問：“我們準備好應對入侵了嗎？”《經濟學人》封面標題是：歐洲準備好了嗎？答案是否定的，因為他們未承諾足夠的國防開支。有人問，如果美國減少承諾怎麼辦——美國也在選舉週期中。現在歐洲人才說必須為自己的防禦負責。
國防開支是長期事業，正因為我們堅持，四艘潛艇將在2028年前後在新加坡水域服役。潛艇是戰略資產。軍事愛好者會明白我的意思。
陸軍方面，下一代裝甲履帶運輸車（ATC）和下一代榴彈炮將投入服役。ATC將與Bronco履帶運輸車並行，替換老舊的BV206。你們中有人可能用過它——更安全、更機動。我知道這裡有些議員來自炮兵部隊，會理解新榴彈炮與舊型榴彈炮2000的區別。你們對舊榴彈炮有記憶。新榴彈炮自動裝彈，射速更快，機動性更強，所需人力減少60%。
維克拉姆·奈爾先生和郭振輝先生問無人作戰能力。烏克蘭和中東局勢證明無人平臺已是當前戰爭的一部分，不是未來趨勢。現代軍隊必備，且使用將日益廣泛，我們也會如此。今年，海軍的無人水面艦艇（USV）將全面投入使用。換言之，無人駕駛，全自動化。它將與近岸任務艦和巡邏艦一道巡邏新加坡海峽。
這些USV是本地設計製造，完全自主導航，能穿越繁忙航道。希望如此，他們向我保證了。新加坡海峽航運繁忙，這些無人艦艇已通過試驗，表現良好。
此外，今年下半年，海軍艦艇將配備近程無人機，擴大監視範圍。也就是說，艦載無人機。
無人機也將配發給陸軍士兵。你們中有科幻迷，知道電影裡有人形機器人跟隨保護。我們還沒到那一步，但陸軍士兵可使用微型無人機。
它們是步兵最後一公里偵察的利器。我們利用新一代技術熟練的國民服役兵。例如，三營新加坡步兵團的一級下士祖拜爾是無人機愛好者，利用他的專長改進無人機戰術、技術和程式，包括從Terrex裝甲車發射和操作。我們將繼續利用國民服役兵的技能強化能力。
朱志明先生和維克拉姆·奈爾先生問我們是否能用這些技術，他們舉了烏克蘭、中東的例子，也擔心敵人會用。你們說得對。必須假設潛在侵略者也能使用，並且規模更大。
恐怖分子可用低成本無人機發動攻擊。用幾百萬美元的導彈攻擊幾千美元的無人機毫無意義，成本消耗會讓你破產。這不可能是作戰模式。我們意識到這些安全威脅，成立小組集思廣益，開發可持續對策。
包括現成方案：干擾槍，或配備智慧火控系統的普通步槍，內建計算機能精準擊落小型無人機。
黃少文先生和黃俊偉先生說數字領域是日益激烈的戰場。我完全同意。這也是我們2022年成立數字與資訊服務局（DIS）的原因，提升能力，與其他國家機構緊密合作。亞歷克斯·嚴先生也提到此事。DIS去年11月聯合舉辦關鍵基礎設施防禦演習（CIDeX）。
約200名前線網路防禦人員，25個國家機構參與。模擬勒索軟體攻擊和國家級網路攻擊，目標是電力、水務、5G通訊等關鍵基礎設施。換言之，大家聚在一起模擬攻擊，研究防禦策略。
此類演習將定期舉行，擴大覆蓋更多領域。我們正在建設數字靶場，因不能在真實系統上演練。數字靶場將於2026年完成，能增加規模、複雜度和真實性。
總的來說，關於武裝部隊的硬體和系統，我們穩定的國防開支打造了一支現代化、高效、具備全面能力應對空、陸、海和網路威脅的武裝部隊。這是簡短總結，背後是數十年官兵的辛勤努力和承諾，包括本院部分議員，以及你們對國防部預算的持續支援。
我已向議員們展示了手冊中的編制圖，但我們絕不能忘記人才。無論平臺多先進，我們的實力取決於人才。我們在基礎設施建設上投入巨大，訓練國民服役兵和常備軍。手冊中有SAFTI城第一期和三個儀器化戰鬥迴路。
我服役時，你們中有些人也許經歷過演習時用空包彈“砰砰”互射，假裝射擊，沒人受傷。我們已大大進步。現在用經皮電神經刺激（TENS）技術，電子射擊識別系統。被擊中即“陣亡”，車輛被擊中即無法移動，更真實。
我們已建立這些設施，但城市建築區尚無此類設施。SAFTI城第一期將實現這一點。儀器化戰鬥迴路意味著進入建築物、房間，穿戴相同裝備，被擊中即算中彈。訓練效果極佳，可進行事後覆盤和錄影回放，查詢錯誤。
Shoalwater Bay訓練區接近完工。去年，我們派遣4300名人員、450個平臺參加Wallaby演習，是歷屆最大規模。新加坡不僅致力於國防，還有友邦願意開放國土供我們部署這些平臺。
今年，擴建後的訓練區將使演習規模增加近50%，訓練時間從6周延長至9周。鄰近的Greenvale訓練區也將投入使用。武裝部隊合計訓練區面積是新加坡的10倍。每年可部署14000名人員、2400輛車輛和裝備。2024年將改善行政醫療設施。建設歷時多年，現已見成效。
自1990年以來，我們一直在Shoalwater Bay訓練區訓練，感謝澳大利亞政府和人民給予的機會。
我試圖用多個例子說明國防開支去向，整體呈現持續進步和良性迴圈，即使新威脅出現也能螺旋上升。但這關乎國防部和武裝部隊人員的心態，面對挑戰的方式，不斷強調做得更好、更安全，不僅保護新加坡，也改善士兵的生活體驗。
Patrick Tay先生稱之為“數字紅利”，我同意。我們用更智慧的聊天機器人回答人力資源諮詢，減少反覆溝通。另一個例子是生物識別技術。國防部總部某些限制區採用面部識別控制出入。它能識別你。外國人則無法進入。開個玩笑，不會開槍，只是不讓進。我只是想看看你們是否還清醒。
國防科技局員工無需營區通行證即可上班，得益於這項技術。第二人民防衛軍正在推行面部識別營區出入，目標是逐步推廣至所有營區，成為和平時期的常態。戰爭和緊張時期可能有不同考量。人工智慧應用需謹慎。
你們手中的講義中有新中央人力基地（CMPB），位於Cashew地鐵站對面。我們這一代是Dempsey閱兵廣場。
英文原文
SPRS Hansard · Fetched: 2026-05-02
The Chairman : Head J. Mr Vikram Nair.
Security Trends
Mr Vikram Nair (Sembawang) : Chairman, I beg to move, "That the total sum to be allocated for Head J of the Estimates be reduced by $100".
Sir, we live in a dangerous world. Following the end of World War II, the great powers of the world came together to build a cooperative framework for international relations. This included the setting up of the United Nations and the Bretton Woods institutions – namely the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
The Charter of the United Nations enshrines the prohibition against the use of force – except in self-defence. This rule is generally regarded as jus cogens – or a peremptory norm of international law – which means it is a rule that permits for no derogation.
Against this backdrop, Russia's invasion of Ukraine – in breach of this rule – is a direct challenge to the rule of international law itself. Russia is a member of the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) – the body that is supposed to lead the collective response of the UN to uphold international law.
When the rule of international law is threatened or breaks down, it leaves small nations like us particularly vulnerable.
Non-state actors are also becoming more powerful and potentially destabilising. The Israel-Hamas conflict has escalated dramatically since October, resulting in devastating loss of life. This is a conflict between Israel, which is – some argue – an occupying power in the Gaza; and Hamas, an organisation that has de facto control over the territory, but as a non-state actor. The violence has spread beyond the Gaza Strip, spilling into Lebanon and the Red Sea – threatening to destabilise the Middle East.
The world is likely be more volatile and unpredictable in the coming year. As a small country, Singapore is vulnerable to changes in its external security environment – a peaceful order is critical to Singapore's success.
Could the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) therefore provide an update on the major global and regional trends that MINDEF and the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) are closely monitoring, and how MINDEF and SAF will be affected by these trends?
[(proc text) Question proposed. (proc text)]
MINDEF's Plans and Priorities
Mr Alex Yam (Marsiling-Yew Tee) : Mr Chairman, in the last few years, we stood witness to the winds of change sweeping across our globe. The pillars of international order have trembled and weakened under the weight of discord and conflict – casting shadows of uncertainty on all of us.
Let us take for a moment to reflect on the sobering reality that the Russia-Ukraine War, is now into its third year. It has transcended mere territorial battlegrounds and has spilled into the virtual realm of cyber warfare and disinformation – shaping perceptions and narratives everywhere. Ukraine's resilient defence, buoyed by initial international solidarity – albeit now more tenuous than it was at the start of the war – stands as a testament to the indomitable spirit of the Ukrainian people. Yet, regrettably, the horizon remains shrouded in ambiguity – devoid of a clear end to this protracted conflict.
And while the world's gaze was on Europe, another conflict rages now in the Middle East, where the ancient sands bear witness to a modern-day tragedy unfolding before all of us. The clash between Israel and Hamas serves as a poignant reminder of unresolved grievances and deep-seated animosities that have marred the region not just for decades – but for centuries and millennia. The hopes for a lasting peace seem now dashed against the rocks of historical enmity, leaving the world grappling for solutions in the face of entrenched divisions – not just far from our shores but within our own borders and between communities.
In this crucible of conflict, we witness the evolution of warfare itself, where traditional boundaries between conventional and unconventional tactics now blur into obscurity. Tactical innovation have birthed a new breed of weaponry, where hybrid tools serve as the vanguards of destruction in an ever-shifting landscape of battle.
Amidst this chaos and turmoil that grip our world, we must not lose sight of the implications that they hold for all of us – especially here in Singapore. Singapore, despite our small size, stands as a beacon of stability in a turbulent sea and it is incumbent upon us to remain vigilant, adaptable and resolute in the defence of our sovereignty.
As we navigate the treacherous waters, let us stand firm against the tides of adversity – fortified by the knowledge that together, we can overcome even the greatest of challenges.
In conclusion, I call upon the Minister for Defence to shed light on how MINDEF and the SAF are adapting plans and priorities to the evolving threats that confront us and how we can collectively chart a course together towards a future defined not by conflict, but by cooperation and peace.
Defence Spending
Mr Chong Kee Hiong (Bishan-Toa Payoh) : Chairman, the world is unfortunately experiencing more political turbulence and military strife. We have witnessed two major conflicts in the last few years and despite many international appeasement attempts, there are no signs of abatement. The rising temperature of US-China relations further adds to the global woes.
Wary of the implications and the undercurrents of all these discords, many governments have increased their defence spending and some have gone on defence shopping sprees to fill their capability gaps.
In Singapore's case, we have always put national defence as our priority. It has always been a non-negotiable since our Independence. In spite of the trade-offs and opportunity cost, our Government – with the trust and confidence of our citizens – has made steady investments in defence, as we have understood the importance of self-reliance.
It is in this light that I would like to ask the Minister for Defence about our defence expenditure. What are the projections for our defence spending this year and what are the Ministry's priorities? What are the main issues or challenges in the process of procurement and maintenance and how is the Ministry overcoming these constraints?
SAF's Transformation Plans
Mr Kwek Hian Chuan Henry (Kebun Baru) : Chairman, as my Parliamentary colleagues have said, it has been over two years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Ukraine faces mounting shortages in traditional weapons systems and ammunition, their military has had to deploy low-cost drones on an improvised basis – which they have done with considerable success.
Earlier this month, the Ukrainian President announced the creation of a separate branch of the Ukrainian Armed Forces devoted to drones. This is not the first conflict where unmanned aerial vehicles are being deployed in significant numbers, but the scale at which the drones have been deployed has resulted in major changes to the warfighting on the battlefield.
In fact, the unprecedented numbers have led some to call this the world's first drone war. Apart from electronic-warfare drone swarms, we are also seeing the use of cyber warfare not just to target civilian infrastructure but also to achieve battlefield intelligence dominance in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
In the Red Sea crisis, the Houthis are weaponising civilian technology to disrupt international trade flow and leveraging asymmetrical warfare by using anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. In the coming years, we can expect that warfare will be further shaped by the use of artificial intelligence and direct-energy weapons.
With all this going on, can MINDEF share on the progress of the SAF's Next Generation transformation plans? With technological advances changing the face of warfare so rapidly, how can MINDEF ensure that that the SAF is able to deal with evolving security threats in a timely, but financially prudent manner?
7.00 pm
SAF's Acquisitions
Mr Don Wee (Chua Chu Kang) : : Chairman, at last year's COS debate, Defence Minister Dr Ng said to the House that "we must never forget that defence is a long-term business." He went on to elaborate that for the SAF, major systems and platforms take 10 to 15 years to conceptualise, build and integrate into its fighting force, assuming all goes well.
I am glad that Singapore has always taken a long-term view on defence. We cannot wait until conflict is at our doorstep, in order to prepare and defend ourselves.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, governments around the world have been rushing to build and buy new weapons as the war has put a significant strain on their stockpiles. However, even with increased spending in defence, it could be years before countries start to reap the dividends of their increased investment. Such are the unfortunate consequences of not making consistent investments in defence.
In March last year, the online publication Defense News reported that Italy was considering the quick procurement of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to serve as gap fillers before long-term projects took shape. The war in Ukraine has brought to the fore the importance of ground warfare capabilities, and Italy's stock of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were ageing and depleting.
I hope that in Singapore, we take in the hard lessons learnt by other countries. We cannot wait until things are heating up to prioritise investing in defence. Hence, MINDEF previously informed the House that the SAF would be adding more platforms and capabilities over the next decade.
As the nature of conflict evolves, it is important for Singapore to be able to effectively defend herself against increasingly sophisticated conventional military and non-conventional threats. In particular, the war in Ukraine has shown us the continued importance of countries maintaining high-end, conventional military capabilities. Would MINDEF provide an update on the progress of the SAF's acquisitions and capability development plans?
F-35B Fighter Jets Acquisition
Ms Poh Li San (Sembawang) : Mr Chairman, MINDEF had previously announced plans to acquire the F-35B fighter jets. Can MINDEF provide an update on this acquisition? As a small country with no strategic depth, it is important for Singapore to have an effective military to deter potential aggression. We are keenly aware that it is necessary for us to modernise our military and ensure that the SAF can protect Singapore.
Over the past few years, MINDEF has provided updates on the modernisation of the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) through the purchase of advanced fighter aircraft and other systems, which play a pivotal role in a nation's defence capabilities.
In March 2019, MINDEF announced that it would purchase four F-35B aircraft, with an eye towards procuring a fleet of F-35s to replace the RSAF's ageing F-16 fleet. Since then, MINDEF has announced that it would acquire an additional eight aircraft, for a total of twelve. The Minister for Defence had also said that the RSAF would take delivery of its first four aircraft in 2026.
However, over the past few years, the world seen many supply chain challenges, which have impacted the timelines for the delivery of some military platforms. Could MINDEF provide an update please?
Unmanned Technology
Mr Vikram Nair : Chairman, given Singapore's declining birth rates, we can expect that our full-time national servicemen and operationally ready National Servicemen (NSmen) cohorts will shrink in the coming years. The SAF will need to do more, with less manpower. It is clear that new technologies have the potential to help organisations optimise and streamline operations.
Notably, the use of drones and other unmanned technologies can help to make up for tighter manpower constraints, and I understand that MINDEF has already made significant progress in this area. Unmanned technologies also enhance the military's capability edge. Mechanised warfare reduces the need to put troops in danger. There is also an ability to fight with precision, while limiting human frailties and vulnerabilities. For this reason, I ask about updates and developments in this area regularly in COS debates.
I am heartened that MINDEF normally reports impressive developments on this front each year. During last year's COS debate, the Minister for Defence highlighted that when used at scale, unmanned platforms in the air, land and sea would be a game changer in the future. We have seen examples of drones being used in ongoing conflicts, such as in Ukraine and in the Middle East.
Given the role that unmanned and autonomous technologies will play in the military domain moving forward, it is more important than ever for the SAF to utilise and integrate such technologies. The Minister for Defence also said that more unmanned aerial and ground vehicles would be introduced in our combat units, and the RSN would be shifting towards a force structure, in which half of its vessels would be unmanned.
On the flip side though, automated technologies also pose greater risk to our forces, given barriers to entry and costs are relatively low. This may provide opportunities for enemies, including non-state actors, to use these technologies to threaten Singapore's securities.
Could MINDEF provide an update on how the SAF has been integrating unmanned technologies to enhance its capabilities, and also dealing with the potential threat from these technologies?
Evolving Military Threats
Mr Desmond Choo (Tampines) : Chairman, in January this year, Houthi rebels fired what the Associated Press reported as their "largest-ever barrage of drones and missiles" targeting shipping in the Red Sea. And just days ago, the US Central Command said that it had observed the Houthis using underwater drones against ships for the first time.
There is growing commentary on the increasingly consequential role drones will play as a terrorist tactic and in the wars of the future. Many of these drones are relatively inexpensive. They can also be deployed at scale and pose a significant threat to our security. One-way attack drones, like the ones that the Houthis are using in the Red Sea, are estimated to cost roughly US$2,000.
In its attacks on 7 October 2023, Hamas deployed commercial quadcopter drones with explosives to disrupt Israeli military infrastructure. In the Ukrainian-Russian war, drones have changed the complex of what was a conventional war. The attacks have changed because of attack and kamikaze drones. There were reports of commercial drones being retrofitted with explosives to attack conventional armies. Furthermore, there has been greater use of drones for surveillance and to direct artillery fire.
Even the most advanced militaries are still grappling with how best to respond to these threats and new developments. One British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) report described how the United States (US) Marine Corps had modified its fighter jets to serve an air defence role, in response to Houthi drone attacks.
The US' interceptions have proven to be effective. However, one can imagine that the risks to servicemen to perform these missions are significant and the cost of each mission is high. If adversaries were to scale up such attacks, existing military responses would not be sustainable.
We have not even examined how a swarm drone attack could be successfully defended, especially when it could be fully autonomous in time to come. Large swarms of drones can overwhelm conventional defences. This leads to questions on whether current air defences are adequate.
The threat that I have described is just one that we are aware of today. But bad actors are continuing to find even more creative and cost-effective ways to evade and weaken conventional military defences. These tactics could exploit new technologies or commercially available, dual-use platforms.
How is MINDEF/SAF meeting the drones challenge? Given the rapidly changing security environment, what is MINDEF/SAF doing to safeguard against emerging and evolving technologies and tactics that can be used to undermine our security? How is MINDEF training its personnel to meet evolving threats?
Threats in the Digital Domain
Mr Shawn Huang Wei Zhong (Jurong) : Chairman, the nature of warfare is evolving, with battles no longer confined to the traditional physical domains of the sea, air and land. It is taking place in the digital domain. Increasingly, it is possible to inflict more damage by infiltrating networks, sabotaging government or civilian infrastructure and disrupting day-to-day operations. Similar to conventional warfare, such attacks target a country by eroding trust in the government, undermine social cohesion and weaken military industrial capacity.
We have seen this strategy play out, for example, the hacking operations on Israeli sites and apps, as well as multiple Internet blackouts in the Gaza Strip since the start of the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Closer to home, we also remember the disruption caused by the SingHealth data breach in 2018, the distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks on StarHub in 2016 and the 2017 cyberattack on MINDEF systems.
In view of Singapore's vulnerability to such attacks, could the Minister for Defence provide views on what MINDEF/SAF is doing to address threats in the digital domain, including steps that the Digital and Intelligence Service (DIS) is taking to guard against these threats?
Updates on the Digital and Intelligence Service
Mr Don Wee : Chairman, in a commentary published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Asst Prof Michael Raska wrote that the main source of strategic advantage in the next 10 years will lie in the ability of modern military organisations to fully integrate innovations in artificial intelligence, cyber power and data science, as well as cognitive science and robotics across all levels of operations and warfare.
For the SAF to maintain its edge, it should continuously evolve to take advantage of new digital technologies. The SAF should also continuously develop responses to defend against new threats.
In view of these rapidly evolving developments, I think that the establishment of the SAF's DIS over a year ago was very timely. It may take many years to fully integrate various digital and cyber capabilities and assets across all levels of operations, and of course, across the three Services, and for the service personnel to build up operational experience. The Ministry is taking the right and necessary steps.
Can MINDEF provide a progress update on the DIS? What steps have been taken to build up its capabilities? How has the DIS been working together with the other agencies in Singapore that operate in the digital domain, in order to boost our security?
Enhancing SAF Training and Readiness
Mr Zhulkarnain Abdul Rahim (Chua Chu Kang) : Chairman, many SAF regulars and NSmen have had the opportunity to train overseas, which allows them to gain ground experience and apply their skills and knowledge in an operational context. This is especially critical for certain types of training that would otherwise be challenging or impossible here, given Singapore's space constraints.
As our global outlook becomes more uncertain, we cannot assume that we will always be able to maintain our current access to overseas training areas. It is, therefore, important to explore different ways to ensure that our NSmen and women train well and remain operationally ready.
Can MINDEF provide an update on efforts to improve local and overseas training? In particular, how are we leveraging technological advancements to maximise the value and efficiency of the SAF's training? What opportunities has the SAF taken advantage of, to provide our servicemen with practical experiences in either conflict zones or humanitarian missions abroad?
Using Technology to Improve Processes
Mr Patrick Tay Teck Guan (Pioneer) : Chairman, my cut is on using technology to improve processes. While the worst of the pandemic might be behind us, it has impacted how we live and work, and pushes us towards embracing new ways of working, specifically going digital and leveraging technologies.
From cloud technology to AI tools to robotic assistance, we have read about how these technologies are transforming the modern workplace. As the world becomes more digitalised, expectations for greater productivity and efficiency will likely ensue. We will need to seize the opportunity to lock in the digital gain and deliver better and also faster.
MINDEF and the SAF has embraced digitalisation and modernised many generations of our forces since decades ago. I would like to ask how MINDEF and SAF is using technology, including generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), to improve the day-to-day experience of its servicemen and servicewomen and uplift their collective capabilities?
Defending Our Interests Underwater
Ms Sylvia Lim (Aljunied) : Sir, as a maritime nation, Singapore is dependent on unfettered access to sea lanes of communication and air routes, bringing goods and people to and from our shores. Disruption of these connections could prove costly.
Indeed, continued investments in our Air Force and Navy, as well as efforts to work with regional and international partners, provide Singapore with an added guarantee of such access.
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Our nation's interests beneath the waves are no less important. Submarine cables bring data from everything from our financial markets to design blueprints and overseas orders to and from Singapore. These cables also help connect the Middle East, South Asia, and with us in Southeast and Northeast Asia.
I understand that there are even plans to increase the number of submarine cable landing sites in Singapore. There are also plans to provide electricity to Singapore via undersea cables. They come in addition to undersea pipelines to carry gas, including from West Natuna in Indonesia. We know that these undersea assets can become targets for attack or sabotage during crisis and are also subject to accidental damage during peacetime.
This is evident from the 2022 Nord Stream 2 explosion, as well as the severing of submarine cables in the Baltic Sea and between Taiwan and Matsu last year. These risks are more real, with increased tensions in Asia and the South China Sea, driven by US-PRC competition and growing maritime traffic. Could the Minister for Defence assure Singaporeans of our ability to protect and repair these undersea assets independently and in conjunction with partners? What are the efforts to enhance such capabilities?
The Chairman : Mr Alex Yam. Take your two cuts together.
Transnational Threats
Mr Alex Yam (Marsiling-Yew Tee) : Mr Chairman, in our rapidly changing world, the nature of threats we face is evolving. We now on confront a growing array of non-conventional security challenges. Terrorism, cyber-attacks and the spread of disinformation are on the rise, both in frequency and impact.
Just last October, a devastating terrorist attack orchestrated by Hamas struck Israel, claiming the lives of innocent individuals. This heinous act sparked a brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas. Israel's disproportionate force and violence, despite the right to self-defence, has led to the loss of thousands of lives and the displacement of countless others.
The repercussions of this conflict extend far beyond their immediate battlegrounds. Here, in Southeast Asia, a prolonged Israel-Hamas confrontation heightens the risk of radicalisation, posing a threat not just to Singapore but to our neighbours as well.
Furthermore, cyber-attacks and the dissemination of false information have become preferred tactics for hostile entities seeking to further their agendas. These attacks are insidious, widespread and challenging to trace, capable of inflicting severe damage on our critical infrastructure and undermining public trust. Given Singapore's heavy reliance on digital technologies, we must remain vigilant against such threats.
ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Cybersecurity and Information Centre
Take, for example, the issue of ransomware, which remains a serious concern in Singapore. Ransomware groups are becoming more sophisticated, swiftly extracting data and using tailored threats to coerce victims into paying up.
It is clear therefore the challenges cannot be tackled by any single nation alone. Cooperation and coordination are essential. Therefore, I am eager to learn about the strategies and initiatives undertaken by MINDEF to address these common threats that transcend our national borders.
To address these challenges, Singapore took the proactive step of establishing the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Cybersecurity and Information Centre for Excellence, the ADMM ACICE, in 2021. This move came amidst the growing digitalisation of society and the increasing prevalence of cyberattacks as well as disinformation and misinformation. I am pleased that the physical centre for ACICE was officially launched on 18 July last year.
This initiative is crucial because cyber and information threats are multifaceted and constantly evolving. It is clear that collaboration with other ASEAN member states and international partners is essential.
Therefore, I am also keen to find out from the Minister for Defence about the progress of ACICE and its plans for the future. How does ACICE intend to build upon its existing work to enhance cybersecurity and combat disinformation?
The Chairman : Minister Ng Eng Hen.
The Minister for Defence (Dr Ng Eng Hen) : Mr Chairman, Mr Vikram Nair began his cut by asserting that our world is a much more dangerous world. Subsequent Members of Parliament (MPs) gave their spiels on the events around us. I do not think anyone in this House or out of it needs to be convinced that indeed the world has become a more dangerous place.
Just last week was 24 February, another day in infamy. We are now in the third year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As many of the Members rightly pointed out, the Israel-Hamas conflict risks a contagion effect over the Middle East and there is a de facto trade war between the US and China.
We are all concerned that the US and China can clash over Taiwan. If that happens, that will be a very bleak Asia for a very long time.
When was this region beset with such trouble? If you remember your Shakespeare: "double, double toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble".
The last time the region experienced this kind of turmoil and potential danger was probably in the 1980s during the Sino-Viet Conflicts that lasted from 1979 to 1991. The Singapore's Pioneer Generation (PG) lived through those tumultuous, perilous times, not only through that period, but for 60 years. The Japanese Occupation in the 1940s, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, Konfrontasi. 60 years. Mr Lee Kuan Yew recounted that he had to sing four national anthems because of the political upheavals that lasted 60 years. Those experiences hardened the PG that were born in the 1920s and 1930s.
And the first order of the day when we gained Independence was to form the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF). It was a visceral reaction.
My generation and for some of us in this House, were born in the 1950s and 1960s, the Merdeka Generation (MG). We lucked out. Many families like mine were poor at the start, but as Singapore prospered, so did we. It was the heyday for open trade and liberalisation, and when the Cold War ended in 1991, the global economy took off, lifting standards of living even higher today.
So, Singapore's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is the highest in Asia. When did we exceed Japan, the second highest? In 2007.
With a strong dollar, overseas travel has become less expensive. I still remember as a boy when £1 was more than S$7. Fish-and-chips was expensive at that time.
Prices in Japan were prohibitive. Now, hordes of Singaporeans go to Japan – not quite expensive.
Sixty years of confrontation the PG lived through. The MG has lived through 30 years of relative peace. And we have assumed that this is the norm. Which is the norm – what the PG went through, or what the MG went through?
If you had asked me even five years ago, I would have said that the current generation – they are lumped together, Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z and other alphabets – would be just as lucky as the MG. Because despite Brexit, the European Union (EU) held – if you remember, the EU was formed in 1993.
During that time, there was a rising economic co-dependency with Russia, even in energy supplies. Before the Ukraine invasion, Russia supplied 55% of gas consumed in Germany. You do not buy gas in that proportion, if you did not believe in peace and lasting peace.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine dealt a death blow to Europe's integration for a generation at least. Worse still, seeds of future discord and conflict have been sown. As the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell said at the Shangri-La Dialogue held here last year, "This war is changing the role of Europe. Europe was and is a project for peace and about peace. But now we face a world where war is something that is in every corner, and these corners are close to our houses."
In the Middle East, the signed Abraham Accords held out the future of accelerated peace and progress in that region. The zeitgeist following the Abraham Accords, not seen or thought possible for a long time, was to avoid conflict and find common cause so that that region could develop economically. This was a dictum following Deng Xiaoping: "to get rich is glorious", instead of war. And for this higher cause, even Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman reversed his position with the Houthis in Yemen, whom he had unleashed deadly strikes on earlier on. So, in this conflict, there is a reversal of roles. The US is striking the Houthis and the Saudis are saying: I want to make peace. That attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023 upended, delayed, if not decimated, these aspirations in the Middle East.
Between the US and China, a trade war has already started. The plan on the US side is to conscribe it to limited areas, particularly high-end technology that have a bearing on national security. In theory, this seems possible. "Small yard, high fences" is the neat way that the US puts it. But in practice, it is much harder because in the name of national security, the yard could get bigger. Right now, a bill in the US Congress targets to exclude Chinese biopharma manufacturing because, I suppose, you could produce something, pharmaceuticals, that weakens your national security. Tomorrow, it may be electric vehicles.
And of course, there is capital, the most fungible of all assets. If a country or company invests large sums in China, would it be seen as helping the potential adversary? And if so, what punitive measures or restrictions might be taken against that country?
In this inter-connected world, will borders erected for national security regress the world to alliances and trade blocs as it did pre-World Wars I and II, and the Cold War?
We are seeing this before our very eyes. That is the privilege of this generation. We are seeing it play out: all the world's a stage. It will take one, two decades for these various scenarios to come to fruition, whatever the outcomes.
Two weeks ago, I was at the Munich Security Conference, the 60th. They titled this 60th Munich Security Conference as "Lose-Lose?" because everywhere they turned, and they analysed all the situations, every scenario they had talked about, both sides lose, and the world loses.
This was my 12th Munich Security Conference. In 2014, I attended the 50th Munich Security Conference. There was a special session organised. I will never forget it. On stage was Henry Kissinger, Helmut Schmidt, former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing. All three gentlemen have passed away since. It has been the 50th Munich Security Conference. Helmut Schmidt and Henry Kissinger had been present in the inaugural Munich Security Conference in 1963. It was such a special forum. It had been 50 years of peace. The mood was one of celebration. I remember President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing saying that Europe had eliminated the concept of war. It was just one decade ago.
All those dreams have been decimated. I can assure this House that surprises and unintended consequences are in store, some linked, others completely out of the blue. When the ambient temperature of geopolitics rises, sparks and fires will arise from multiple sources.
So, I have reversed my assessment for today's generation in Singapore and elsewhere. The risk of regional and even global conflict, even in the next decade, has become non-zero. I do not make this assessment lightly.
What are the precise odds? It is not productive. We are not Nostradamus. It is imponderable and your guess is as good as mine. But the most important question, I think, is what some Members here have said – Vikram Nair, Alex Yam and others. What can Singapore, as a small country, and Singaporeans, do realistically to prepare ourselves as best as we can for disruptions and unintended consequences? Because there will be disruptions and intended consequences – that we can be sure. How we meet it, we are not sure.
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I remember US Defense Secretary Gates; I quote him often for this quote. He was addressing West Point Military Academy graduates. And he told the West Point graduates that for the last decade, the US Department of Defense's record for predicting where they would be within a year of the conflict, was perfect. They never got it right. One year, with all its machinery of intelligence collection and prediction, the US Administration never got it right. So, we cannot pretend to know what will come and yet, we have to prepare. So, how do we prepare Singapore for this uncertain future?
First, I think, we should recognise that Singaporeans have more to protect and with more resources to do so, compared to the PG and MG. Some Singaporeans may remember the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in 1990. Among the justifications for the invasion, Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing oil – there was a particular field, it is called Al-Rumaylah oil field, which straddles both states, across the borders. Iraq said, "you are pumping from your side, but you are siphoning off from my side." Geographically, I think it is possible, but that was the claim, anyhow. Wealthy, small Kuwait with its rich resources was a tempting and lucrative victim. Wealthy, small Singapore can be a lucrative target, without a strong defence.
In that invasion, the US came to the rescue of Kuwait and led 42 countries to join forces in an air and ground war. The SAF provided support for casualties. We deployed a 30-member medical team to the region.
But I want to make clear here, that if ever something similar happens to us here in Singapore, this Government, MINDEF and the SAF do not plan on the basis that we can depend on another country to come to our rescue. If Singaporeans will not or cannot defend Singapore, there is no backstop. That is the simple truth. A strong SAF acts a deterrent against aggression towards us and keeps adventurism at bay.
When I listen to the speeches of MPs, it was heartening because all of you understand, across the aisle, of whatever political persuasion, we are on our own. And I want to thank Members of this House for supporting MINDEF's Budget every year.
We do spend precious dollars consistently on defence, as some of you observed. Money which could have benefited other causes, but we know that without security, there can be no progress. Singapore was ranked the sixth most peaceful country in the world in the latest Global Peace Index. I do not know and do not want to find out, what our ranking would have been if we had not put in the necessary investments to build a strong SAF. I think that experiment would be too costly.
Mr Chong Kee Hiong asked to give us details on the defence spending this year and subsequent years. Let me do that.
In the coming Financial Year, MINDEF projects an expenditure of around $20.2 billion – a 2.5% increase from last year, FY23. If you compare this to 2022, the increase is higher, but that was because we were catching up – projects and activities disrupted by the pandemic.
Despite nominal increases for defence spending over the past years, the share as a percentage of GDP has been falling mainly because Singapore's GDP has been growing faster than defence spending. That is a good outcome.
With your permission, Mr Chairman, I have asked the Clerks to distribute handouts.
The Chairman : Please go ahead. [ Handouts were distributed to hon Members. ]
Dr Ng Eng Hen : Thank you. These handouts are instructive, so, while you are listening, take your time to peruse it. You can also access this through SG PARL MP mobile app.
First, our GDP. As Members can see, two decades ago, we were spending 5% of GDP on defence. By the way, every time Budget comes around, I pick up and compare figures. The average Middle East spending, Middle Eastern countries is about 4% of GDP. Europe, of course, is undergoing huge turmoil, they have not spent even 2%.
But two decades ago, we were spending 5% of GDP on defence. Now, we are down to about 3%. That is a 40% reduction in share.
Now, we could be decreasing because Total Government spending has been either maintained or is reducing. But total Government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased, from an average of 16% in the early 2000s to an average of 18% in recent years. I think if you listen to Deputy Prime Minister Wong, there are structural reasons why our economy and our revenue flows will not be as high as before. I think it is good that we reach this level, and some of you have asked, including Mr Chong what are our future defence spending is, I would say that our spending can stay around 3%, move up or down a bit, but in this range over the next decade, with one important caveat: barring conflicts and wars, obviously.
Mr Alex Yam, Mr Henry Kwek and Mr Don Wee asked "That is the overall picture, but where has this spending gone? And how are you preparing the SAF?" These are excellent questions.
Let me make clear the decrease in defence budget as a percentage of GDP was not because the SAF cut back on what is necessary to defend Singapore. Our defence capabilities have never been compromised. It is also not because our manpower has come down. I think Mr Vikram noted that our NS cohorts, he said, "will be coming down." I must tell him it has already come down. And the last time we were in a dragon year, all of us expected that to have good news. Today, our total fertility rate is 0.97. We all expect a mini dragon. We never had real dragons for a long time since 1988. That was the last real dragon. Beyond that, every dragon cycle are mini dragons. I hope we are proven wrong this year, but let us leave that to another Ministry.
It has come down because as various Defence Ministers and including MPs have said, we sustained defence spending and that was the most effective and efficient means of building a strong military over the longer term. So, today, we are reaping dividends of the sums we put in steadily over the past 20 years. And if we continue to invest wisely, we will reap more dividends in the future.
If you read the newspapers today, what the Denmark, either the Defence Minister or Prime Minister was saying, "we should cut back on welfare to increase our defence spending." We never want to be in that position. We actually want to do both. Steady long-term defence spending enables platforms and capabilities to mature over the necessary timeline and to enhance synergy and reap efficiencies.
Let me illustrate to make it more clear with practical examples along the way. Ms Poh Li San asked about our F-35s. So, that is a good place to start, to illustrate what I mean. The F-35s when operational will put the RSAF in the Premier League. That is it. The sixth generations are being developed, but it will take some time. So, when they are operational, we will be in the Premier League.
When did we start looking at the F-35 programme? You think it is a matter of course, right? You pay the money, you get it. But we are in a very, very different position. We are in Singapore – 5.5 million people, looking at F-35s. And we started evaluating the F-35s in 2004, 20 years ago. First, as a Security Cooperation Participant, and then we dipped our feet in the water tentatively, ordered four aircrafts for evaluation. But since then, as Ms Poh Li San recognised, events have overtaken that. Because since that period, the F-35s have been deployed by other air forces for real missions, which is the final test of any evaluation, final test of any combat platform. So, for example, the US and the UK, their F-35s, they conducted successful strikes against ISIS in the Middle East. More recently, the US used their F-35s to locate and identify surface-to-air missile sites of Russian units in Ukraine. This information was shared with NATO countries.
So, to-date, more than 900 F-35s have flown in operations around the world. When we began our evaluation, these were not the numbers. And their battlefield successes have prompted more countries – Switzerland, Germany, to jump on board the F-35 programme. Other countries, South Korea, Japan, UK, have placed additional orders. So, a question was asked whether there are supply chain disruptions? Not for the F-35, in fact, the reverse. More orders have gone in because around the world, they have recognised that the F-35 is a proven fifth generation fighter aircraft; advanced sense and strike capabilities.
So, globally, there are close to 2,500 F-35s, and that is a healthy pipeline on the order book. Because of that the price is now more competitive. In fact, if you buy an F-35, put in an order for it, it is not like a car, but you understand what I am saying. If you put in an order for an F-35 today, the price is comparable to an F-15EX. That is how competitive it is.
So, we will capitalise on this window of opportunity to accelerate our F-35 programme. We have ordered, as Ms Poh Li San said four plus eight F-35Bs. This time, we are putting in an order to acquire eight F-35As, adding to our 12 F-35Bs.
The RSAF could take these decisions deliberately, cool and calculated mindset, because of the steady defence spending over the years. And this allowed our mid-life upgrade of F-16Cs, our Ds and D+s, which the F-35 will replace. The F-16s, after their mid-life upgrade, will be drawn down progressively from mid-2030 onwards.
We will receive the first four F-35Bs which we ordered four years ago in 2026; it seems to be on schedule. And the subsequent eight F-35Bs that we are in 2028. That is a couple of years from now. The F-35A variant that I am announcing today, if Parliament approves this Budget, will arrive around 2030.
We have to deprioritise other projects for this opportunity buy, but we have done our calculations and we think that this is the best time to put in the order for the F-35As. Why? Because the F-35As are designed for greater endurance. They have the ability to carry a payload at higher capacity. They complement the F-35Bs which are short, take off and vertical landing, because the F-35As are bigger, bulkier, bigger range, and provide more operational flexibility.
In sum, after the F-16s retire, the RSAF will operate F-35As, F-35Bs and F15SGs. Premier League. Capable of performing the full suite of missions required to defend Singapore skies. This will be a capable Air Force above all to protect our skies.
For the Navy, our first invincible class submarine returned to Singapore last year. You did not notice. If you notice, then it is not doing its job. Submarines are a hefty investment and obviously, I cannot use them for National Day Parade, like I do our planes. But rest assured that our submarines will silently and stealthily protect the waters around us.
Later this year, we will commission her, as well as launch the fourth and final submarine in Kiel. This submarine programme, custom made for the RSN – this is the first time we have got them custom-made. Previously, we ordered used submarines, adapted for our use, of course. But this is the first time, from scratch, we dealt with the defence supplier, this is what we need. When did we start this? 2000. Twenty years ago.
Defence is a long-term business. And as some of you rightly pointed out, including Mr Don Wee, you cannot decide that you are going to have defences up. President Zelensky spoke at the recent Munich Security Conference, in person. He sent a chill down the audience's spine, when he said, I think, "You European countries, are not ready for an invasion!" Ukraine, despite all its preparations, was not ready.
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For the next few days, that was the question back and forth, "Are we ready for an invasion?" So, if you look The Economist's front page, the title is: Is Europe Ready? It is not. Because they have not committed to that defence spending. Questions were asked, what happens if the US – they are looking at elections, too – what happens if the US reduces its commitment? And only now are the Europeans saying we have to be responsible for our own defence.
Defence spending is a long-term business and because we stuck to it, all four submarines will be operational around Singapore waters by 2028. Submarines are a strategic asset. Those of you who are military buffs will understand what I mean.
For the Army, the next-generation Armoured Tracked Carriers (ATCs) and the next-generation Howitzers will be brought into service. The ATCs will operate alongside the Bronco Tracked Carrier and replace the older BV206. Some of you may have used it – more protected, more mobile. I know that some Members here are from the artillery and will appreciate the difference between the new Howitzer and the old field Howitzer 2000 that they operated. You have memories of your old Howitzer that you operated. The new Howitzers are self-loading, shoot faster and move, and require 60% less manpower.
Mr Vikram Nair and Mr Henry Kwek asked what about unmanned capabilities. The Ukraine situation, the situation in the Middle East, have proven that unmanned platforms are already part of today's current war, not even future. And it is a given in any modern military, and it will be increasingly used, and we will do the same. So, this year, the Navy's Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) goes fully operational. In other words, no person on it, fully unmanned, automated. It will patrol the Singapore Strait alongside our Littoral Mission Vessels and patrol vessels.
Locally designed, manufactured, these USVs, fully autonomous, can navigate our busy shipping lanes. Touch wood, that is what they promised me. It is a busy shipping strait, and these are unmanned, but I think they were put to trials and they performed.
In addition, our Navy ships will have Close-Range Unmanned Aerial Vehicles by the second half of this year to extend their range for surveillance. So, UAVs on ships.
The UAVs will also filter down to the soldiers in the Army. Some of you are sci-fi buffs and you know the movies where you have your own personal android that follows you that can survey and shoot people and protect you. We are not there yet, but our Army soldiers can use their own micro-UAVs.
They will be an asset for soldiers on foot for last-mile surveillance. And we are tapping on a new generation of NSmen who are tech-savvy. So, for example, Corporal First Class Zubayr. He is an avid drone enthusiast. They tapped on his expertise. He comes from 3rd Battalion Singapore Infantry Regiment (3 SIR) to refine the drone tactics, techniques, procedures, including launching and operating from a Terrex. And we will continue to harness the skills of our NSmen to strengthen our capabilities.
Mr Desmond Choo, Mr Vikram Nair asked if we can use it, and they gave examples of current missions in Ukraine, in the Middle East, others can use it against us. You are absolutely right. You have to assume that a potential aggressor can do the same. They can scale it.
Terrorists can use low-cost drones to launch attacks here. It makes very little sense to launch a couple of million-door missiles to attack a couple of thousand dollars drone. The attrition of costs will bankrupt you. So, that cannot be the modus operandi. We are alive to these security threats. We set up groups to brainstorm and develop sustainable countermeasures.
And they include off-the-shelf solutions: jammer guns, or our usual rifles fitted with a smart fire control system, an on-board computer to accurately shoot down a small drone.
Mr Shawn Huang and Mr Don Wee said that the digital domain is an increasingly contested battleground. I agree completely with them. And that was the reason we formed the DIS in 2022, to build up competencies, to work closely with other national agencies. Mr Alex Yam also talked about this. The DIS co-organised the Critical Infrastructure Defence Exercise (CIDeX) in November last year.
We had about 200 frontline cyber defenders, 25 other national agencies. Scenarios simulated attacks by both ransomware, some of you talked about it, and nation-state cyber attackers on our key infrastructure: power, water, 5G telecommunications. So, in other words, you sit them in a room, you simulate the attacks, how do we defend?
This exercise will be like their live firing, will be held regularly to expand and cover more sectors. We are building a digital range because you cannot do it on live systems, right? But we have a digital range that replicates these systems. That digital range will be completed in 2026. It will allow us to scale, add complexity and realism in this digital domain.
All in all, when it concerns hardware and systems for SAF, our steady defence spending has built up an SAF that is modernised and effective with a full suite of capabilities against threats: air, land, sea and cyberspace. This is a short summary statement and it belies the decades of hard work and commitment by our servicemen and women, including some in the House, and your constant support for MINDEF's budget.
I have shown Members what it looks like in the ORBAT in the handout, but we must never forget people. We are only as good as our people, no matter how advanced our platforms. And we have made sizeable investments in building up infrastructure to train our NSmen and Regulars. So, if you look at the handout, SAFTI City Phase 1, together with our three Instrumented Battle Circuits.
During my time, some of you maybe also, when you do exercises, you use blanks and bang, bang, bang, bang. So, I pretend to shoot you, you pretend to shoot back and nobody dies. Well, we have come a long way from that. Now, it is transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (TENS), which are electronic RFID things. If somebody shoots you, you are "dead". If your vehicle is shot, it does not move. It has become more realistic.
We have built that up, but for urban built-up areas, we do not have that. That is what SAFTI City Phase 1 will do. Instrumented Battle Circuits means you go into a building, in a room, it is the same outfit, and if you are shot, you are shot. So, it is very good training because you can do an after-action review (AAR), video playback, see what you have done wrong.
Shoalwater Bay Training Area is near completion. Last year, we deployed 4,300 personnel, 450 platforms to Shoalwater Bay . It was the largest-ever edition of Exercise Wallaby. So, not only is Singapore committed to its defence, we have friends who are willing to open up their country to allow us to put all these platforms there.
And this year, the expanded training area will allow us to increase the scale of exercise by close to 50%, with an increase in training duration for six to nine weeks. Then, there is the adjacent Greenvale Training Area. The SAF will have a combined training area 10 times the size of Singapore. We can deploy up to 14,000 personnel, 2,400 vehicles and equipment annually. We will have improved administrative medical facilities by 2024. This took years to build up, but it is coming to fruition.
We have been training in the Shoalwater Bay training area since 1990, and I want to thank, on our behalf, the government and the people of Australia for these opportunities.
I have tried to give various examples to see where our defence dollars have gone over the years, and the overall picture is one of continuous progress and virtuous cycle, spiralling up even when new threats arise. But it is about the mindset among MINDEF and SAF personnel, the way we approach challenges, the constant emphasis to do things better, safer, not only to protect Singapore, but to improve the lived experience of our soldiers.
Mr Patrick Tay said this is "digital gain", and I agree with him. So, we are using smarter chatbots to answer HR enquiries so that you do not have to go back and forth. Another example is the use of biometrics. For some restricted areas in MINDEF HQ, facial recognition is the norm to control access. It recognises you. If you are a foreign person, it shoots you. Not quite. This is a joke. It just does not let you enter. I am just trying to see if you are still awake. It just recognises you, and if it does not, you cannot go in.
DSTA employees no longer require a camp pass to go to work because of this technology. The 2nd People's Defence Force (2PDF) is in the process of operationalising facial recognition for camp access. The aim is to progressively roll this out to the rest of our camps and bases to be the norm during peacetime. During war and periods of tension (POT), I think there may be issues. The applications of AI, when we apply it, but we have to do it judiciously.
You will see in your handout, the new Central Manpower Base (CMPB) opposite Cashew MRT. My generation is Dempsey Parade Square.